Tropical Weather Discussion by NHC
021
AXNT20 KNHC 311757
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
156 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, at 31/1500 UTC, is
near 13.7N 22.7W, or 87 nm SE of the southernmost Cabo Verde
Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The
low center is moving WNW at 10 knots. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The government of the
Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Santiago, Fogo and Brava. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 12N-16N between 23W-27W. Please read the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 02N-13N, moving
west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-09N
between 40W-47W.
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from Hispaniola near 20N71W
to N Colombia near 08N73W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is over Hispaniola from 16N-20N between 68W-
74W. Scattered showers are over NW Venezuela from 08N- 11N
between 70W-73W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 15N17W, through the
1006 mb low pressure center that has the potential to develop
into a tropical cyclone, to 11N30W, to 09N46W. The ITCZ continues
from 09N46W to the coast of South America near 06N58W. See the
Special Feature section and the Tropical Wave section for
convection. in addition, scattered moderate convection is over
Trinidad from 09N- 11N between 61W-64W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A small upper level low is centered over SE Louisiana/the north
central Gulf of Mexico near 28N89W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are over the E Gulf of Mexico from 23N-30N
between 82W-90W. An upper high is centered over S Texas near
29N98W. Scattered showers are over the W Gulf of Mexico from
2423N-30N between 90W-97W.
A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N71W. A
surface ridge extend W from the high to E Texas along 30N. This
ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into the weekend and support
gentle to moderate SE winds. A surface trough will develop each
evening in the Yucatan Peninsula. It will move W and offshore into
the SW Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours. A surge of
moderate to fresh NE to E winds will accompany this trough each
night.
Furthermore, an upper level low will advect from the N Bahamas to
S Florida this weekend. Expect nocturnal thunderstorms over Sat
night and Sun night.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered S of Hispaniola near 17N72W
enhancing convection.
The eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along
09N/10N from Costa Rica to Colombia. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-12N between 80W-84W.
Nocturnal winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the south
central Caribbean Sea during the next several nights. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave, currently
over Hispaniola, will move through the western Caribbean Sea by
late Sunday into early Monday with active weather. A second
tropical wave will move into eastern Caribbean Sea Sun.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level low is centered over the N Bahamas near 25N75W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-29N between 71W-78W.
A surface trough has broken away from the Caribbean tropical wave
and extends NE of Hispaniola from 24N66W to 18N69W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 150 nm of this trough. This trough
is moving WNW towards S Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N71W. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N56W to 27N57W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A 1025 mb high
is over the E Atlantic near 35N31W producing fair weather.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
Formosa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Storm Investigation
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 31 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized cloudiness and showers extending from Hispaniola
northeastward to the adjacent Atlantic are associated with a
tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This activity
is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward enhancing the
rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and Florida into early next week. Strong
upper-level winds will prevent any development of this system during
the next 2 to 3 days, but environmental conditions could become less
hostile when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during
the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Avila
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PTC SIX can become a tropical storm at anytime. This system is still forecast
to remain out over the open waters of the Atlantic as a hurricane.
As for the area of disorganized showers and storms near Dominican and the
Eastern Bahamas, this system will more than likely bring periods of fast moving
heavy rains and gusty winds to Dominican Republic the Bahamas and Southern
Florida Labor day and Tuesday. Development is not expected due to upper level
winds but could become a bit more favorable over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. RTW
