GORDON UPDATE BY NHC
936
WTNT32 KNHC 041438
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018
...OUTER RAINBANDS PRODUCING SQUALLY WEATHER ALONG THE COAST OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...GORDON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 86.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Grand
Isle, Louisiana.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to Dauphin Island
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Shell Beach to the Mouth of the Mississippi River
* East of Dauphin Island to Navarre
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama-Florida Border
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of the Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, including Lake
Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
* Alabama-Florida Border to Okaloosa-Walton County Line
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning areas.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 86.8 West. Gordon is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue until landfall occurs tonight along
the north-central Gulf coast. A northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected after landfall, with a gradual
turn toward the north-northwest and north forecast to occur on
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across
the northern Gulf of Mexico today, and will approach the north-
central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late this
afternoon or evening, and move inland over the lower Mississippi
Valley tonight and early Wednesday.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph
(100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today,
and Gordon is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes landfall
along the north-central Gulf Coast. Rapid weakening is forecast
after Gordon moves inland.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center. NOAA Buoy 42039, located north of Gordon's center,
recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust
to 49 mph (80 km/h).
The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Shell Beach to Dauphin Island...3 to 5 ft.
Navarre Florida to Dauphin Island, including Mobile Bay...2 to 4 ft.
Shell Beach to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft.
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama,
southern and central Mississippi, southeastern and northeastern
Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, with isolated maximum amounts of
12 inches through late Thursday. This rainfall will cause flash
flooding across portions of these areas.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin this
afternoon within portions of the warning area, with hurricane
conditions expected by this evening in the hurricane warning
area.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon through
tonight near the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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HURRICANE FLORENCE UPDATE BY NHC
336
WTNT31 KNHC 041436
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018
...FLORENCE BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON...
...NO THREAT TO LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 42.5W
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 42.5 West. Florence is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A slower
northwestward motion is forecast to begin Thursday and continue
through the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through
tonight, but weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday and
continue through Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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