Monday, September 10, 2018

FLORENCE WIND FIELD EXPANDING AND STRENGTHENING SEPT 10, 2018...0515 PM EDT

FLORENCE PUBLIC ADVISORY UPDATE BY NHC
492 
WTNT31 KNHC 102053
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED TUESDAY
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 61.1W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches could
be issued for portions of these areas by Tuesday morning.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 61.1 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple
of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur late
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will
move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the
Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of South
Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Further strengthening is anticipated,
and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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 Monster storm heading for the Carolinas.
https://ralphstropicalweather.com/ 
Models a bit spread toward the end of forecast and shows a possible stall.
H-Models a tad further north than precious run
 NHC and UKMET model
 Possible Cat 5 some where down the road.
 

FLORENCE 12Z GFS WIND GUST MODEL AND 12Z NAM REFLECTIVITY MODEL

12z GFS Wind Gust Model Shows a landfall on the Outer Banks. This is why they use the cone of area and you should never follow the forecast line. However, once again this is only a forecast and it can change.


12z NAM Reflectivity Model also suggest landfall in the Outer Banks.
This is a future reflectivity radar forecast. Remember this is only a forecast and subject to change.

 

FLORENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SEPT 10, 2018... 1147 AM EDT

ALL MY WORK IS DONE MANUALLY BY ME SO IT TAKES A WHILE TO GET MOST OF IT DONE AS WELL AS PUBLISHING THE WEBSITE SO YOUR PATIENCE AND UNDERSTANDING IS APPRECIATED...RTW

092 
WTNT31 KNHC 101448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.0W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches could
be issued for portions of these areas by Tuesday morning.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 60.0 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A west-northwestward
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
couple of days.  A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur
late Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and
the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of South
Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts.  Florence is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Further strengthening is anticipated, and Florence is expected to be
an extremely dangerous major hurricane through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
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