Friday, September 21, 2018

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 21, 2018... 0336 PM EDT


Invest 97L still encountering upper level shear development if any will be slow to occur.

Invest 98L still lacking thunderstorm activity.  Development if any will be slow to occur.

Invest 99L continues to look good on satellite and NHC raised the chance for development within 48 hrs to 30%.

















TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SEPT 21, 2018


The tropical Atlantic looking busy again however, only a few systems have a chance for development.

Invest 99L off the African coast is looking rather impressive on visible satellite and on color image this morning.  The system has a nice outflow and color image shows very cold cloud tops a sign that this system is becoming better organized.  A depression or tropical storm can form at anytime.

This system has a LOW chance 20% within 48 hrs and a MED chance 60% within 5-days.  The chance for development more than likely increase later today because the system continues to show signs of organization...RTW

Invest 98L southeast of Bermuda the remnants of Florence is void of thunderstorms.  This system is forecast to loop back toward the coast and recurve out to sea.  I dont see much development with this system at this time.  Chance for development is LOW 0% within 48 hrs and LOW 20% with 5-days...RT

Invest 97L has an exposed circulation to the west-northwest of the thunderstorms. This system is presently passing through a shear environment with upper level shear from the west seperating the thunderstorms the east and away from circulation.  Development if any will be slow to occur.  Chances for development are LOW 10% within 48 hrs and LOW 10% within 5-days... RTW

There are watching a non-tropical low pressure in the north Atlantic bewteen Bermuda and the Azores that has LOW chance 10% within 48 hrs and a HIGH chance 70% within 5-days.  Not much going on here now but there is a frontal boundary where a low could form from...RTW