Wednesday, September 26, 2018

TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 26, 2018 11.56 PM EDT


Kirk continues to gradually weaken as it tracks into a hostile shear environment near the Lesser Antilles and the Eastern Caribbean.  I mentioned this in my previous afternoon update.  Air Force Recon found rising pressure around 0800 PM EDT and now a weaker tropical storm at 11 PM EDT.

Satellite shows another small burst of convection as Kirk makes another attempt at reorganization and a temporary strengthening. This won't last long as relentless wind shear begins to separate the colder cloud tops from the center of circulation.   As the storm system weakens the wind field expands in coverage.

Squally conditions and localized heavy rains will begin to spread across the islands as early as tomorrow evening...RTW






TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 26, 2018...0448 PM EDT


This update will be dedicated to Kirk since it's the only storm system threatening land.

Kirk has been gradually strengthening even though it has been encountering southwesterly shear.

Satellite this afternoon shows upper level winds disrupting the west quadrant of the tropical cyclone, and these winds are increasing as Kirk reaches the islands.

Kirk is forecast to pass over the islands as a tropical storm but the likelihood of further strengthening is low.  Upper level shear in the Eastern Caribbean is very hostile and this should weaken Kirk to a depression and eventually to remnant low.  Most models show Kirk dissipating in the Caribbean.

Residents of the northern Windward and Leeward Islands should prepare for tropical storm conditions and localized heavy rainfall...RTW










TROPICAL UPDATE SEPT 26, 2018...0910 AM EDT


Kirk restrengthens to a tropical storm last night.  Kirk will be a short live tropical storm as it moves into the Eastern Caribbean.  Upper level wind shear will be present and Kirk is forecast to dissipate...RTW

98L off near the outer Banks and void of thunderstorms on the west side of this system.  This means that all the heavy rains and storms remain to the east of the weak center...RTW

Post tropical Leslie will more than likely be be replaced by a new and stronger low and will be named Michael if that occurs.  This storm system will be meander for days on end until a frontal boundary comes aalon and sweeps it to the northeast...RTW