TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 3, 2018... 0404 PM EDT

Leslie tracking over the north Central Atlantic.  Bermuda is feeling swells from the tropical Cyclone.

Broad are of low pressure located in the South Caribbean is still being monitored for tropical cyclone formation.

Last three model run has been trending to a weaker system and more toward the west-northwest.  There were a few that took it north. It's hard to tell if these run are valid because we don't have an actual center of circulation so these model run are all questionable for now.

I do believe if any of these model run to the west were to be valid, it could be due to high pressure in the Atlantic building west over Florida.  If that were the case, then we could see a Mexico or even Texas landfall.  However, like I said before these model run are questionable for now...RTW

HOW MUCH RAIN WILL TRACK NORTH FROM CARIBBEAN?

As the disturbance in the Caribbean begins to drift north- northwestward, it will also drag some of the precipitation associated with it.

This means moisture will spread northward over the Cayman islands, Jamaica, Cuba, the Florida straits and South Florida.

How much rain will all depend on the evolution and track of this tropical disturbance.

Below are the 48 hour and day 7 over all rainfall forecast...RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 3, 2018... 1019 AM EDT

Leslie now a hurricane over the North Central Atlantic.  Leslie continues to be only a threat to shipping, but it is producing swells along the Bermuda coast.

Still monitoring a disturbance in the South Caribbean associated with a broad area of low pressure.

This disorganized area of showers a storms is spreading west and east and could affect as far as Haiti and Puerto Rico as it drifts slowly northward toward the Northwest Caribbean.

As this system drifts north- northwest, it could become better organized and a depression or tropical storm could form during the weekend.

At this time models continue to show some development but are not as aggressive as past model run, where some showed a hurricane in the Caribbean and Eastern Gulf.

High pressure in the Atlantic should keep this system moving toward the Northwest or North-Northwest.

Interest in Cuba, the Yucatan, South Florida, New Orleans to the Florida Pan Handle, should closely monitor the progress of this system...RTW