Monday, October 8, 2018

HURRICANE MICHAEL STRENGTHING AT THIS TIME TOMORROW LAST DAY FOR PREPERATIONS

000
WTNT34 KNHC 090255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 85.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the northeastern Yucatan peninsula and Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Michael was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 85.3 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion
on Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will continue to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over
the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and
then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from the two reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by
Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the two aircraft
was 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far
western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, Georgia and South
Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch.

SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
 












 

MICHAEL SATELLITE REVIEW OCT 8, 2018...0701 PM EDT

Michael less organized than earlier.  The west side of the storm is being shear and the proximity to Cuba also disrupted the storm structure even though the center is over the water. 

As Michael begins to move over the open water of the southern Gulf rapid intensification could take place.  Intensity models hint on a cat-3 hurricane making landfall along the Florida Panhandle.


MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 8, 2018... 0502 PM EDT

000
WTNT33 KNHC 082046
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
500 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018

...TENACIOUS LESLIE RESTRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 45.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 130 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 45.8 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A slower
motion toward the southeast or east-southeast is anticipated over
the next couple of days, with a turn toward the east-northeast
forecast on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane again on
Wednesday, and further strengthening is possible through Thursday.

Leslie is a large tropical cyclone.  Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
 




 

MODELS HINTING ON YET ANOTHER CARIBBEAN LOW OR STORM

Well after reviewing models I continue to notice some models hinting at another low or storm in the Caribbean.  We will have to keep close tabs on that in the coming days and week...RTW




HURRICANE UPDATE OCT 8, 2018... 1140 AM EDT

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...NHC

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at
a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night,
followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward near the
western tip of Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Crystal River...8-12 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...5-8 ft
Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with
local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-
threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
 

LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A CAT 3 MAJOR HURRICANE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RTW





 

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 8, 2018...0836 PM EDT

Michael nearing hurricane strength.

This morning satellite shows an increase in convection (thunderstorms) around the center of circulation and plenty of deep tropical moisture to feed this cyclone.  Michael will more than likely become a hurricane this morning sometime today.

Michael is poised to make landfall along the Florida Panhandle as a cat two hurricane.

The track remains unchanged north to northeast across northern Florida.  This is due to a trough across the Mid-Planes and high pressure in the Atlantic.  These two system has made a path for Michael to track through.

Deep tropical moisture to the east of the center is already rising north across Cuba, and the Florida straits.  Although Michael is not expected to directly impact southern Florida, the Indirect affect of fast moving rain bands and squally conditions will affect the Peninsula as the cyclone tracks northward.  Since south Florida is on the dirty side of this storm system you can't rule out water sports and isolated tornados as some of these fast moving rain bands move north and west across the area.

Interest from Alabama to Tampa should continue to monitor the progress of Michael and plan ahead for the possibility of Hurricane conditions... RTW