000 WTNT44 KNHC 100252 TCDAT4 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon and evening indicate that Michael has been undergoing a rapid deepening phase with the pressure having dropped to 947 mb, a decrease of 20 mb between 1800Z and 0200Z with most of those pressures falls occurring during the past few hours. Michael's eye has become more distinct in GOES-16 high-resolution infrared satellite imagery, with a solid ring of cloud top temperatures colder than -75 deg C surrounding the warming eye. Some cloud tops in the eyewall have been as cold as -88C, which is very impressive for a Gulf system. The peak 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by the NOAA aircraft thus far has been 130 kt and the strongest SFMR surface wind speed observed has been 110 kt in the same location as the peak flight-level winds. Based on these wind data, along with a central pressure of 947 mb, Michael's intensity has been increased to 110 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC, support an intensity of 115-127 kt. However, those also estimates also would support a central pressure of about 935 mb, which the aircraft has not measured thus far. The initial motion estimate is due north, or 360/10 kt. Michael is essentially on the previous advisory track, and there is no significant change to the previous track forecast discussion. The models have settled in a stable forecast pattern, which calls for Michael to remain embedded within deep southerly flow for the next 24 hours between a substantial ridge to the east and a highly amplified mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the western and central U.S. and northern Mexico. As a result, the dangerous hurricane is expected to move northward to north-northeastward and make landfall along the coast of the central panhandle of Florida by late Wednesday afternoon. After landfall, increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer trough is expected to accelerate Michael toward the northeast through 48 h, with the cyclone moving across the southeastern U.S. late Wednesday and Thursday, and emerging over the western Atlantic by early Friday. A continued northeastward motion at forward speeds of 30-40 kt is forecast at 72-120 h when Michael is expected to be an extratropical cyclone. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, TCON, and NOAA-HCCA. Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs. After landfall, significant weakening is expected while Michael moves over the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is forecast to re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic forcing after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday. The new intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models throughout the 120-h period. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane warning area by Wednesday morning, so all preparations should be rushed to completion. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect life and property today. 2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia. 4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these areas...NHC
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 9, 2018...1100 PM EDT
MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 9, 2018...0500 PM EDT
000 WTNT44 KNHC 091443 TCDAT4 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 Michael has continued to become better organized this morning. The hurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more apparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery. Data from both NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory. With two aircraft in the storm, they have been able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times this morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind field. The planes actually passed through the eye around the same time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one another. The outflow pattern has become better established over the hurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly shear. The shear should continue to decrease, and further strengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday. Michael is expected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Significant weakening should occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United States, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected when the system moves over the western Atlantic. Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the central United States. As the trough moves eastward it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday. The hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some differences in forward speed thereafter. The GFS and ECMWF have trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been adjusted accordingly. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect life and property today. 2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. 3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into portions of Georgia and South Carolina. 4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so....NHC
Tropical Outlook Oct 9, 2018...0426 PM EDT
Mean while in the Atlantic we have pesky Leslie still trapped in a blocked environment waiting for another stronger system to help me it out.
Nadine over the east Atlantic not a threat to anyone but shipping.
RTW
Nadine over the east Atlantic not a threat to anyone but shipping.
RTW
MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 9, 2018...1140 AM
Michael continues to strengthen dispite dry air and moderate shear.
Latest visible shows improvement in the inflow and outflow cloud structure. So it seems that the Cyclone in Intensifying as forecast.
Today is your last day for evacuation and complete preparations so don't waist anytime.
Life-threatening storm surge expected. Remember these Gulf basins allow for inland funneling of ocean water with no where for the water to flow back out to sea. Staying along the coast in these conditions will be deadly. So please heed the advice of emergency Management and local authorities...RTW
Latest visible shows improvement in the inflow and outflow cloud structure. So it seems that the Cyclone in Intensifying as forecast.
Today is your last day for evacuation and complete preparations so don't waist anytime.
Life-threatening storm surge expected. Remember these Gulf basins allow for inland funneling of ocean water with no where for the water to flow back out to sea. Staying along the coast in these conditions will be deadly. So please heed the advice of emergency Management and local authorities...RTW
HURRICANE MICHAEL UPDATE OCT 9, 2018...0955 AM EDT
Michael managed to intensify over night dispite dry air intrusion and moderate upper level shear.
Michael's eye a collapsed this morning but it seems to be trying to reorganize.
Intensity Models still suggesting a Cat 3 by landfall tomorrow. Let's hope dry air and shear persist and a weaker system makes landfall.
Life-threatening storm surge for a large area so check with local media and EOC or National Hurricane Center for storm surge information and maps.
Today is your last day for evacuation and preparation, so make sure to get it all done today.
Board up with 5/8 plywood and make sure to secure them with long tacom screws and washers.
If you have shutters or panels then even better. DON'T USE TAPE FOR GLASS WINDOWS IT DOES NOT WORK!
MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH SUPPLIES TO LAST YOU TWO WEEKS.
RTW
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