Thursday, January 31, 2019

DAY 1 AND 3 SEVERE STORM OUTLOOK.

SPC storm Outlook
Looks like southern California is getting drench from a strong low that moved on shore earlier.

Texas coast also getting their share of rains a storms.

The Southeast has a slight chance thunderstorms on day 3 as another front Moe's through to area...RTW






SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NWS MIAMI

FLZ072-074-172-173-311445-
Coastal Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
922 AM EST THU JAN 31 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY UNTIL
945 AM EST...

* At 922 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a gusty shower over
Surfside, moving northwest at 5 mph.

* Funnel clouds possible with this shower.

* Locations impacted include...
Miami, Miami Beach, Surfside, Hallandale, North Miami, North Miami
Beach, Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach, Miami Shores, North Bay
Village, El Portal, Little Haiti, Ojus, Golden Glades, West Little
River, Bay Harbor Islands, Biscayne Park, Bal Harbour, Golden Beach
and Fiu North Campus.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This activity was also developing in an environment favorable for the
formation of funnel clouds. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio and
local media for additional updates and possible warnings.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on Facebook and
Twitter.


Wednesday, January 30, 2019

DAY 3 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Model is no longer suggesting disturbance in Gulf tracking toward west coast of Florida.

However, Day 3 Outlook show a slight and marginal risk for thunderstorms in Texas although GFS model not picking up on much. See graphics below...RTW




Tuesday, January 29, 2019

I WILL BE MONITORING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FROM THE GULF

Same model that forecast this weekend's Gulf disturbance is forecasting another low pressure disturbance from the western Gulf that will track toward Central Florida west coast.  Question is will this disturbance hold up to produce severe weather across the state?  So far it seems that it may loose it's convective energy before it makes it on shore.  However, this is into the future and everything can change.  I will continue to monitor each run in the coming week. 

There is another system that will bring very cold wind chill temps on Wednesday for northern and Central Florida that is moving across the southeast as we speak. 

Chance for thunderstorms are 10% the big bend and 10% for the West Central coast...RTW





Sunday, January 27, 2019

SOUTH FLORIDA GETS A BREAK FROM THE RAINS BUT MORE ON THE WAY

South Florida gets a break from all the while Fridays front backs up and drags all the moisture over northern Florida.  Low pressure in the Gulf will merge with this front and drag more rains from the Gulf over the southern half of Florida this evening.  So enjoy dry conditions for now because it won't last long.  There is still a chance for a thunderstorm this evening...RTW










Saturday, January 26, 2019

MARGINAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY

There is a marginal chance for thunderstorms across south Florida on Sunday.  More rains heavy at times with the potential for localized flooding for those areas prone to flooding.  There is always a chance that the thunderstorm could turn severe, with lightning and gusting winds.  Where there is a thunderstorm you can't rule out an isolated funnel cloud or tornado...RTW


MORE RAINS AND STORMS FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY

A soggy weekend instore for South Florida.  A stationary front will slowly move east, mean while another system from the Gulf will merge with the front and drag more rains sometime heavy over the southern portion of the state...RTW






Friday, January 25, 2019

RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORMS POSSIBLY HEAVY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY

The front that past through south Florida Thursday will back up over the area Saturday and parts of Sunday.  This could bring heavy rains at times for the Florida straits and extreme southern Florida on Saturday and Sunday morning.

Model still shows an impulse of storms from the Western Gulf that will merge with the tail end of this front.  The heavy rains and possible storms will track north from Cuba as the front moves north over the peninsula...RTW



Thursday, January 24, 2019

WILL BE MONITORING NEXT SYSTEM COMING FROM WESTERN GULF

I will be monitoring the next low that will come east from the Western Gulf of Mexico.  This system has some potential for heavy rains and maybe strong to severe storms for Southern Florida if it does verify.  This system is forecast to pass Sunday into Monday...RTW


SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NWS MIAMI

FLZ066-070-071-073-241700-
Inland Broward County FL-Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
1116 AM EST THU JAN 24 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLLIER...NORTHERN
MIAMI-DADE...SOUTHEASTERN HENDRY AND BROWARD COUNTIES UNTIL NOON
EST...

* At 1115 AM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Big
Cypress Seminole Reservation to 9 miles east of Carnestown.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
Big Cypress Seminole Reservation, Intersection Alligator Alley And
Miami Canal, Big Cypress National Preserve, Dade-Collier Training
Airport, Miccosukee Indian Reservation, Miccosukee Service Plaza
and West Broward Rec. Area On Alligator Alley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency.


Wednesday, January 23, 2019

SOUTH FLORIDA SEVERE STORM UPDATE FOR THURSDAY

Seems like the arrival for possible severe storms is now Thursday.  Deep South has less of a chance.


SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS

Slight chance for strong to severe storms across the southeast today with the approach of another strong front.  Windy conditions ahead of the front persist due to the squeeze play between high in the Atlantic and the approaching front.  Both system pushing against each other is producing a strong pressure gragient over the Eastern Gulf and Florida.