Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

TORNADO WARNING

708
WWUS54 KSHV 292006
SVSSHV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
206 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

LAC043-292014-
/O.CAN.KSHV.TO.W.0067.000000T0000Z-161129T2045Z/
GRANT LA-
206 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GRANT PARISH IS CANCELLED...

THE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT
OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CST FOR NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

LAT...LON 3193 9200 3187 9201 3176 9232 3186 9243
      3217 9215 3197 9190 3193 9190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 229DEG 33KT 3186 9232

$$

LAC021-059-127-292045-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0067.000000T0000Z-161129T2045Z/
CALDWELL LA-LA SALLE LA-WINN LA-
206 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
CALDWELL...NORTHERN LA SALLE AND EAST CENTRAL WINN PARISHES...

AT 204 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR OLLA...OR 19 MILES EAST OF WINNFIELD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE
         TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE
         IS LIKELY.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
OLLA AROUND 215 PM CST.
CLARKS AROUND 230 PM CST.
GRAYSON AROUND 235 PM CST.
COLUMBIA AROUND 240 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
SPAULDING...STANDARD...URANIA...BURLINGTON...TULLOS AND KELLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 9200 3187 9201 3176 9232 3186 9243
      3217 9215 3197 9190 3193 9190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 229DEG 33KT 3186 9232

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

20

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728
WFUS54 KSHV 291953
TORSHV
LAC021-043-059-127-292045-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0067.161129T1953Z-161129T2045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
153 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GRANT PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN CALDWELL PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHERN LA SALLE PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN WINN PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 245 PM CST

* AT 152 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OLLA...OR 16 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WINNFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.
           TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
OLLA AROUND 215 PM CST.
CLARKS AROUND 230 PM CST.
GRAYSON AROUND 235 PM CST.
COLUMBIA AROUND 240 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
SPAULDING...ZENORIA...URANIA...BURLINGTON...STANDARD...GEORGETOWN...
ROCHELLE...TULLOS AND KELLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A
MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3193 9200 3187 9201 3167 9243 3181 9256
      3217 9215 3197 9190 3193 9190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 229DEG 33KT 3178 9242

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

20

Tropical Weather Outlook

Some of the models suggest a weak low to head west to west-northwest toward Puerto Rico and Dominican. None of them suggest and tropical cyclone at this time. I will watch it, but not a big deal, may be some rains for this region if it does develop some.

Elsewhere the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico ans we near the end of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

RTW

Miami Forecast

Today

Partly Cloudy Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 81°F. Southeast wind 9 to 14 MPH.

Isolated Showers Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 75°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Wednesday Nov 30

Partly Cloudy Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 81°F. Southeast wind 8 to 14 MPH.

Isolated Showers Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 75°F. East southeast wind to 7 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Thursday Dec 1

Isolated Showers Day: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 81°F. Heat index around 86°F. Southeast wind to 7 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Isolated Showers Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73°F. Light wind. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Friday Dec 2

Isolated Showers Day: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 82°F. North wind to 11 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Isolated Showers Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73°F. Northeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Saturday Dec 3

Partly Cloudy Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 81°F. East northeast wind to 16 MPH.

Isolated Showers Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73°F. East wind to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Sunday Dec 4

Scattered Showers Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 81°F. East southeast wind to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Isolated Showers Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73°F. Southeast wind to 16 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Monday Dec 5

Isolated Showers Day: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Highs around 79°F. South wind 13 to 18 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Monday, November 28, 2016

More on Gatlinburg fire

‏@KolHaolam

TENNESSEE: PHOTOS: National Guard is being brought in to city of Gatlinburg and beyond as massive wildfires force mandatory evacuations.

TORNADO WARNING CLARKE, JASPER MS

382
WUUS54 KJAN 290334
SVRJAN
MSC023-061-290415-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0412.161129T0334Z-161129T0415Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
934 PM CST MON NOV 28 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL JASPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 1015 PM CST

* AT 933 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PAULDING...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF STRINGER...MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROSE HILL AROUND 945 PM CST.
ORANGE AROUND 950 PM CST.
STONEWALL AROUND 1000 PM CST.
SABLE AROUND 1005 PM CST.
MIDDLETON AROUND 1010 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE PACHUTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3203 8859 3191 8924 3209 8922 3223 8879
3222 8859
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 248DEG 42KT 3205 8912

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

DC

Gatlinburg TN Fire

Gatlinburg is being ravaged by fire. Strong system approaching from the west, lets hope that it is enough rain to douse the fire. The big problem with this system are 60-70 mph winds that will be blowing through the brush fire and possibly fanning the flames. Not a good scenario so lets hope the rains come down hard and steady...RTW

Update 1040 PM EST Radar animation at bottom of this blog shows the fire smoke streaming north and unfortunate not much precipitation moving through the area.

Downtown Gatlinburg

Tropical Outlook

Other than a Caribbean short wave mid-upper level trough approaching the Lesser Antilles the tropics remains quiet.

This tough is producing gusty winds and heavy rains in the form of a squall line, so mariners beware.

NATL. WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA

‏@NWSNorman

338am:thunderstorms will continue across far Srn OK through the early morning hours. Severe storm chances appear to be decreasing. #okwx

AccuWeather Forecast

‏@breakingweather

A surge of warmth will spread across the eastern U.S. to close out November: http://ow.ly/Vovx306zMk6

South Florida Radar Review

On Easterly shore flow showers moving inland this morning...RTW

RIP CURRENT ADVISORY NATL. WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI

Radar valid at 417 am EST, Nov 28th 2016

844
WHUS42 KMFL 280915
CFWMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

FLZ168-172-173-282100-
/O.NEW.KMFL.RP.S.0037.161128T1000Z-161129T1200Z/
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI-DADE-
415 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK, WHICH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE PROBABLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS...BEACH PATROL
FLAGS AND SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE AND BACK TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.

SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT REMAIN CALM.
DON'T FIGHT THE CURRENT. SWIM IN A DIRECTION FOLLOWING THE
SHORELINE. IF UNABLE TO ESCAPE, FACE THE SHORE AND CALL OR WAVE
FOR HELP. IF TIRED, FLOAT OR TREAD WATER UNTIL OUT OF THE RIP

Hail Forecast

‏@HailPoint

Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #Hailpoint

Severe Weather Outlook Little Rock

‏@NWSLittleRock

Update: Severe storms (with damaging winds) remain possible over the southeast half of Arkansas later today. Be prepared! #arwx

SEVERE STORMS

Strong storms are affecting areas around Gainesville at this time. Very heavy rain and 30-40mph likely. #wfaaweather

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Tropical Outlook

The tropics remain quiet at this time as we near the end of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season...RTW

Wide view Altantic AVN Satellite still imagery

Surface Analysis map

Day-2 Severe Storm Outlook

Day-2 Categorical Outlook calls for an enhanced chance for severe weather for the Southeast. Louisiana should stay alert for the possibility of Severe storms on Monday and maybe Tuesday...RTW

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html