Friday, February 17, 2017

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST 0414 PM EST



Today Feb 17, 2017
Mostly Sunny today:  Highs around 79°F.  North wind to 10 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 64°F.  East wind to 8 MPH.

Saturday Feb 18
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 82°F.  Southeast wind 9 to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. night:  Lows around 70°F. South southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Feb 19
Partly cloudy with isolated showers during day:  Highs around 84°F.  Southwest wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the night:  Lows around 68°F.  West wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Feb 20
Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 82°F. Northeast wind 5 to 11 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 68°F.  East northeast wind to 11 MPH.

Tuesday Feb 21
Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 81°F.  East wind 10 to 15 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 68°F.  East wind to 14 MPH.

Wednesday Feb 22
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the day:  Highs around 81°F.  East southeast wind 11 to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the night:  Lows around 66°F.  Southeast wind to 16 MPH. Chance of rain increase to 50 percent due the approach of a Gulf low forecast to track over the state.  Severe storms can’t be ruled out as a squall line is forecast to move across the state ahead of the low pressure system.

Thursday Feb 23
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the day:  Highs around 81°F.  South southeast wind to 15 MPH. Chance of rain increases 50 percent due to Gulf low forecast to pass over the state of Florida.  Severe storms can’t be ruled out as a squall line is forecast to move across the state ahead of the low pressure system.





HIGH RISK FLOODING LOS ANGELES THIS WEEKEND!




THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK


Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook.


GULF MOISTURE TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER LOUISIANA

A disturbance from the western Gulf is drawing in moisture over Louisiana today.  Some cells could be strong to may be severe with heavy rains and gusty winds at time.

RTW 
 Wide view Radar
Infrared Enhanced Satellite 
 Visible Satellite
 Water Vapor
 



SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODS

Here is the latest graphics!


STILL MONITORING MODELS FOR SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN GULF NEXT WEEK

Good morning everyone, I am still monitoring different models for possible sub-tropical development by middle of next week.  

Models are still suggesting low pressure development and a track across the Florida Peninsula and ahead of the low a squall line.  

So if it does materialize and depending on how strong this system becomes will determine if Florida will experience severe weather or not.  Systems that come from this direction usually produce enough upper level lift to spin off water spouts and isolated tornadoes.   Let's just continue to monitor different model run which I will post on here daily so stay tuned here for the latest.  

RTW








Thursday, February 16, 2017

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY FORECAST



Tonight Feb 16, 2017
Mostly clear this evening.  Lows around 59°F.  Northwest wind to 6 MPH.

Friday Feb 17
Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 77°F.  North wind to 9 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 64°F.  East southeast wind to 7 MPH.

Saturday Feb 18
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 82°F. Southeast wind 6 to 13 MPH.  Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 70°F. South wind 5 to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Feb 19
Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the day:  Highs around 84°F.  South southwest wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Mostly Clear during the night:  Lows around 68°F.  Northwest wind to 9 MPH.

Monday Feb 20
Mostly Sunny during the day:  Highs around 81°F.  Northeast wind to 13 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 66°F.  East northeast wind to 11 MPH.

Tuesday Feb 21
Partly Cloudy during the day:  Highs around 81°F.  East wind to 11 MPH, gusting to 19 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night:  Lows around 66°F.  East wind to 11 MPH.

Wednesday Feb 22
Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms day:  Highs around 81°F.  East southeast wind 10 to 15 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Cloudy with chance of showers during the night:  Lows around 72°F.  Southeast wind 11 to 18 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

 FORECAST MAPS COURTESY OF N.W.S. MIAMI FLORIDA






UNUSUAL WARM WATERS IN THE GULF & MODELS HINTING ON SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT

Gulf waters are unseasonably warm for this time of the season due to a lack of winter in the south.  Some of the models are suggesting possible sub-tropical development in the central Gulf middle of next week.  

What is the likelihood that a tropical storm could form in the Gulf of Mexico during this time of the year you may ask?  Well if water temps are favorable, upper level winds, atmospheric conditions in general are favorable for cyclone genesis to occur this could happen anytime of the year in the Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

I guess will see if this holds true.  I will continue monitoring model run which could turn out to be nothing or not!

RTW




UPDATED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK


Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.


THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK


Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook.


IF THIS VERFIES THEN ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON COULD BE QUIET!

1m1 minute ago

The latest ECMWF forecast is quite aggressive at calling for the return of conditions over the next few months.


POTENT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING MORE RAINS TO CALIFORNIA



If this powerhouse cyclone comes in (as some models suggest) near 988 mb, it would rival the lowest pressures ever recorded in the region


SATELLITE AND TEMPERATURE MAP ACROSS THE U.S.

Good morning!
A frontal boundary along the Florida straits has south Florida under cloudy skies.  These clouds should clear the State by this afternoon giving way for clear skies and cooler temps over night.

Temps tomorrow morning for South Florida will be mid to upper 50s inland to lower 60s along the coast.  I am posting 3 satellite images so you can see where the cloudiness ends and how much more of the clouds before we clear out.

There is an area of clouds over Southwest Gulf that may move toward the state over the weekend and increase the rains chance slightly.  Other than that weather here in Florida will be nice.

RTW
COLOR ENHANCED INFRARED SATLLITE
VISIBLE SATELLITE
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE

Confirmation of my forecast for over night temps in south Florida from Channel 4 Meteorologist Lissette Gonzalez.


Forecast models show tonight lows fall to the CHILLY 50s inland & COOL 60s near the coast.