UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Today JUNE 18, 2017 0342 AM EDT

Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the day:  Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southeast wind 8 to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 15 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday Jun 19

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 15 MPH, gusting to 20 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Jun 20

: Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday Jun 21

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F.  Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Jun 22

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. Southeast wind 8 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Jun 23

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Jun 24

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR IS COURTESY OF N.W.S. MIAMI FLORIDA

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 18, 2017 0313 AM EDT... "HAPPY FATHER'S DAY"...

INVEST 92L STILL NO CHANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT IS SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARD 55 WEST WHERE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. 

ALSO AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE EAST CARIBBEAN THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR NEAR 65 WEST THAT COULD ALSO HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. 

THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48HRS. AND A MEDIUM CHANCE 50% WITHIN 5-DAYS. 

NOTE THAT IS A DECREASE FROM 60% EARLIER DUE FORESEEABLE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

INVEST 93L IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP.  THIS SYSTEM SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW BEING ENHANCED BY A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FIRING UP HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN CUBA, CAYMAN ISLANDS, JAMAICA AND NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48HRS. AND AN MEDIUM CHANCE 80% WITHIN 5-DAYS.

THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT STILL UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING TEXAS, LOUSIANA, AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. 

I SUGGEST THAT THOSE WHO LIVE IN THE GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...RTW

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY FROM RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER (RTW)

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 17, 2017 0903 PM EDT

INVEST 92L OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48HRS. AND 60% WITHIN 5-DAYS.

INVEST 93L GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT NOW HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48 HRS. AND 80% WITHIN 5-DAYS.  NOT SURE YET WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS HEADED.  SO RESIDENTS FOR THE MEXICO TEXAS BORDER TO LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...RTW

THERE ARE TWO OTHER WAVES WEST OF THE AFRICAN COAST THAT HAVE BEEN INTERACTING WITH A MONZOON TROUGH.  THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT.  THEY LOOKED RATHER IMPRESSIVE LAST NIGHT.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

AS I PROMISED THE MODELS FOR INVEST 93L CARIBBEAN SYSTEM

AMENDMENT MADE TO CORRECT BELOW SENTENCE ADD THE WORD (NOT).

THESE ARE NOT THE BEST MODELS THEY HAVE TO OFFER BUT ITS A START AND SOON AN UPGRADE OF THIS SYSTEM TO A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.

EYE ON THE TROPIC JUNE 17, 2017 0123 PM EDT

LATEST MODEL RUN FOR THOSE WHO CAN GO TO WEBSITE IS AT "RALPH'S STORM TRACK MAPS" AND FOR THOSE WHO CAN'T GO TO THE SITE BECAUSE YOUR USING A PHONE HERE IT IS BELOW.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

EYE ON THE TROPIC UPDATE JUNE 17, 2017 0320 AM EDT

NEW MODEL RUN IS OUT AND YOU CAN FIND IT AT RALPH'S STORM TRACK MAPS.

Since this website does not work for some of you, I am posting the model map here as well. 

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 17, 2017 12:37 AM EDT

UPDATE 6/17/2017 0226 PM
Low latitude wave over the Central Atlantic has been upgraded to INVEST 92L by NHC.  They are giving this wave a 40% chance of development within 48hrs. and a 70% chance within the next 5-days.

Another aggressive wave behind 92L seems to be better organized than 92L.  In fact this wave looks like it is a tropical depression at this time via satellite.  I will keep close tabs on this system as well.

The Caribbean system continues to show signs of organization and this system has now a 20% chance for development within 48hrs. and 70% within the next 5-days per NHC.  Gulf Coast residents From Mexico Texas Border to Northern Texas keep monitoring this system over the weekend.

African satellite animation shows another strong wave about to roll off the coast and another strong wave behind that one.  Seems to me that the Cape Verde or (Cabo Verde) season has begun early.

RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 STORM INVEST 92L

 

 

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 16, 2017 0436 PM EDT

Developing storm system over the northwest Caribbean is now a Storm Invest without the number at this time.  This system now has 10% chance of developing within 48hrs. and still remains a 60% chance within 5-days.  Thunderstorm activity continue to redevelop even with wind shear in the area.  Slow development over the weekend expected and into the first half of next weekend.

1012mb low associated with central Atlantic tropical wave seems like its becoming better organized as it continues to tracks westward in the lower latitudes.  This system now has a potential for development of 30% within 48hrs. and a 50% chance within the next 5-days.  Most of the models dissipate this system as it tracks through the southern East Caribbean sometime next week...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

Hail Point®‏ @HailPoint 4

Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook. #Hail #PDR #Roofing #Insurance #Hailpoint

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 16, 2017 1130 PM EDT

The west Caribbean a bit more active with scatter strong storms however, the wind shear still a bit strong in the area.  This system is gradually attempting to take shape.  NHC has up to this to a 60% chance of development within the next 5 days.

The wave west southwest of the Cape Verde Island or ( Cabo Verde) in Spanish has now has a 20% chance of development within the next 48hrs. and 40% within 5-days.

Watching another wave behind the one above even though non of the models suggest development...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 15, 2017 0918

Showers and storms more numerous in the Bay of Honduras and the west and northwest Caribbean.  Development forecast during the weekend.

Tropical Wave southwest of the Cape Verde no change in organization. 

Wave off the African coast looks less organized lost some of its convection (thunderstorms).  Development if any would be slow to occur...RTW

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Tonight Jun 15, 2017 0435 PM EDT

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms:  Lows around 75°F.  Southeast wind to 9 MPH.  Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Jun 16

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs around 88°F.  Heat index around 93°F. South wind to 9 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night:  Lows around 75°F.  South southeast wind to 9 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Saturday Jun 17

Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the day:  Highs around 88°F.  Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH.  Chance of rain 50 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F.  East southeast wind to 9 MPH.  Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday Jun 18

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day:  Highs around 84°F.  Heat index around 93°F. East southeast wind 9 to 15 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Monday Jun 19

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day:  Highs around 88°F.  Heat index around 97°F. Southeast wind to 18 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night:  Lows around 79°F.  East southeast wind to 13 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tuesday Jun 20

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F.  Heat index around 97°F.  Southeast wind to 15 MPH.  Chance of rain 50 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms Night: Lows around 79°F.  East southeast wind to 11 MPH.  Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Jun 21

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F.  Heat index around 95°F.  Southeast wind to 9 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH.  Chance of rain 40 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 81°F.  Heat index around 91°F.  East southeast wind to 11 MPH.  Chance of rain 40 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA