TRACKING THE TROPICS JUNE 19, 2017 1028 PM EDT

Other than BRET and PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) THREE there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation elsewhere.

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BRET TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 19, 2017 0500 PM EDT

000
WTNT42 KNHC 192042
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017
500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

An Air Force WC-130 invest mission this afternoon into the
disturbance was able - after much effort - to find a well-defined
closed circulation.  The location of the center was substantially
farther west than anticipated, as the system is now moving toward
the west-northwest at a very quick 26 kt.  Because the system
has developed a well-defined center, it is now considered a tropical
storm and has been named Bret.

Convection continues to display robust bands on the northwestern
and southeastern quadrants of the disturbance, as seen in the
geostationary satellite and Trinidad radar imagery.  The Hurricane
Hunter mission also found maximum surface winds of about 35 kt,
which agrees with the Dvorak 2.5 CI number from TAFB.  These winds
are only occurring in the northern semicircle due to the very quick
translational velocity of the system.

While the convective structure has been impressive today, it
appears that the window of opportunity for the system to
further develop is closing.  Between interaction with the landmass
of Venezuela and increasing vertical shear beginning in about a day,
the intensity model guidance does not show any significant
intensification.  The official intensity forecast is steady state
for about a day, followed by gradual weakening until dissipation in
about three days. An alternative scenario - given that the
disturbance has tracked left, or equatorward, of the guidance thus
far - is that it could remain south of the forecast track and
dissipate over Venezuela and never reach the Caribbean Sea.

The system is anticipated to slow somewhat, but still move at a
rapid rate toward the west-northwest until dissipation, steered by
strong trade winds south of the Bermuda high.  The official track
forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique and is
faster compared with the previous advisory, due to the farther west
initial position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z  9.4N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 10.1N  62.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 11.3N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 12.2N  68.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 13.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea 

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

AIR FORCE RECON FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN POTENTIAL TC TWO

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO (INVEST 92L) IS NOT UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BRET!

TRACKING THE TROPICS JUNE 19 2017 0424 PM EDT

Three waves in the tropics other than the two systems that are being monitored closely these waves are not showing signs of organization at this time...RTW

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INVEST 93L TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 19, 2017 0401 PM

I WILL MORE THAN LIKE HAVE TO UPDATE THIS INFO AGAIN AS SOON AS THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS IN AT NHC AND THEY DETERMINE WHAT STATUS TO GIVE THIS STORM SYSTEM. 

SO FAR FOLKS FROM TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.

TRACKING THE TROPICS JUNE 19, 2017 1222 PM EDT

There three tropical waves over the Atlantic and so far those are not showing signs of organization.

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1100 AM EDT TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 19, 2017 FOR INVEST 92L (BRET)

LATEST UPDATE 1100 AM EDT  FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE BRET

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 19, 2017 0924 AM EDT

INVEST 92L, TD TWO OR BRET IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF SHEAR AS IT PASSES 55WEST.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A SMALL COMPACT STORM AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.

INVEST 93L STILL ORGANIZING AND TAKING ONE OF THOSE WEIRD GULF OF MEXICO STORMS SHAPE.  THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ANYWHERE BETWEEN NORTH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST.  KEEP CLOSELY MONITORING AND BE READY TO ACT IF WATCH OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA...RTW

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Today JUNE 18, 2017 0342 AM EDT

Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the day:  Highs around 84°F. Heat index around 93°F. Southeast wind 8 to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 15 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday Jun 19

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 86°F. Heat index around 95°F. Southeast wind to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 15 MPH, gusting to 20 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Jun 20

: Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Wednesday Jun 21

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F.  Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Jun 22

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. Southeast wind 8 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Jun 23

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Jun 24

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR IS COURTESY OF N.W.S. MIAMI FLORIDA

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 18, 2017 0313 AM EDT... "HAPPY FATHER'S DAY"...

INVEST 92L STILL NO CHANGE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IT IS SLOWLY TRACKING TOWARD 55 WEST WHERE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE AT THIS TIME. 

ALSO AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE EAST CARIBBEAN THERE IS NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR NEAR 65 WEST THAT COULD ALSO HINDER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. 

THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48HRS. AND A MEDIUM CHANCE 50% WITHIN 5-DAYS. 

NOTE THAT IS A DECREASE FROM 60% EARLIER DUE FORESEEABLE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

INVEST 93L IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP.  THIS SYSTEM SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE NOW BEING ENHANCED BY A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FIRING UP HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN CUBA, CAYMAN ISLANDS, JAMAICA AND NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48HRS. AND AN MEDIUM CHANCE 80% WITHIN 5-DAYS.

THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT STILL UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING TEXAS, LOUSIANA, AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. 

I SUGGEST THAT THOSE WHO LIVE IN THE GULF COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...RTW

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY FROM RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER (RTW)

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 17, 2017 0903 PM EDT

INVEST 92L OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48HRS. AND 60% WITHIN 5-DAYS.

INVEST 93L GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT NOW HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48 HRS. AND 80% WITHIN 5-DAYS.  NOT SURE YET WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS HEADED.  SO RESIDENTS FOR THE MEXICO TEXAS BORDER TO LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...RTW

THERE ARE TWO OTHER WAVES WEST OF THE AFRICAN COAST THAT HAVE BEEN INTERACTING WITH A MONZOON TROUGH.  THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT.  THEY LOOKED RATHER IMPRESSIVE LAST NIGHT.

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AS I PROMISED THE MODELS FOR INVEST 93L CARIBBEAN SYSTEM

AMENDMENT MADE TO CORRECT BELOW SENTENCE ADD THE WORD (NOT).

THESE ARE NOT THE BEST MODELS THEY HAVE TO OFFER BUT ITS A START AND SOON AN UPGRADE OF THIS SYSTEM TO A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.

EYE ON THE TROPIC JUNE 17, 2017 0123 PM EDT

LATEST MODEL RUN FOR THOSE WHO CAN GO TO WEBSITE IS AT "RALPH'S STORM TRACK MAPS" AND FOR THOSE WHO CAN'T GO TO THE SITE BECAUSE YOUR USING A PHONE HERE IT IS BELOW.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

EYE ON THE TROPIC UPDATE JUNE 17, 2017 0320 AM EDT

NEW MODEL RUN IS OUT AND YOU CAN FIND IT AT RALPH'S STORM TRACK MAPS.

Since this website does not work for some of you, I am posting the model map here as well. 

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 17, 2017 12:37 AM EDT

UPDATE 6/17/2017 0226 PM
Low latitude wave over the Central Atlantic has been upgraded to INVEST 92L by NHC.  They are giving this wave a 40% chance of development within 48hrs. and a 70% chance within the next 5-days.

Another aggressive wave behind 92L seems to be better organized than 92L.  In fact this wave looks like it is a tropical depression at this time via satellite.  I will keep close tabs on this system as well.

The Caribbean system continues to show signs of organization and this system has now a 20% chance for development within 48hrs. and 70% within the next 5-days per NHC.  Gulf Coast residents From Mexico Texas Border to Northern Texas keep monitoring this system over the weekend.

African satellite animation shows another strong wave about to roll off the coast and another strong wave behind that one.  Seems to me that the Cape Verde or (Cabo Verde) season has begun early.

RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 STORM INVEST 92L