Saturday, June 17, 2017

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 17, 2017 0903 PM EDT

INVEST 92L OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC STILL HAS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48HRS. AND 60% WITHIN 5-DAYS.

INVEST 93L GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT NOW HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MEDIUM CHANCE 40% WITHIN 48 HRS. AND 80% WITHIN 5-DAYS.  NOT SURE YET WHERE THIS SYSTEM IS HEADED.  SO RESIDENTS FOR THE MEXICO TEXAS BORDER TO LOUISIANA SHOULD CONTINUED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM...RTW

THERE ARE TWO OTHER WAVES WEST OF THE AFRICAN COAST THAT HAVE BEEN INTERACTING WITH A MONZOON TROUGH.  THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT.  THEY LOOKED RATHER IMPRESSIVE LAST NIGHT.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net






AS I PROMISED THE MODELS FOR INVEST 93L CARIBBEAN SYSTEM

AMENDMENT MADE TO CORRECT BELOW SENTENCE ADD THE WORD (NOT).

THESE ARE NOT THE BEST MODELS THEY HAVE TO OFFER BUT ITS A START AND SOON AN UPGRADE OF THIS SYSTEM TO A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.



EYE ON THE TROPIC JUNE 17, 2017 0123 PM EDT

LATEST MODEL RUN FOR THOSE WHO CAN GO TO WEBSITE IS AT "RALPH'S STORM TRACK MAPS" AND FOR THOSE WHO CAN'T GO TO THE SITE BECAUSE YOUR USING A PHONE HERE IT IS BELOW.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net




EYE ON THE TROPIC UPDATE JUNE 17, 2017 0320 AM EDT

NEW MODEL RUN IS OUT AND YOU CAN FIND IT AT RALPH'S STORM TRACK MAPS.

Since this website does not work for some of you, I am posting the model map here as well. 



EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 17, 2017 12:37 AM EDT

UPDATE 6/17/2017 0226 PM
Low latitude wave over the Central Atlantic has been upgraded to INVEST 92L by NHC.  They are giving this wave a 40% chance of development within 48hrs. and a 70% chance within the next 5-days.

Another aggressive wave behind 92L seems to be better organized than 92L.  In fact this wave looks like it is a tropical depression at this time via satellite.  I will keep close tabs on this system as well.

The Caribbean system continues to show signs of organization and this system has now a 20% chance for development within 48hrs. and 70% within the next 5-days per NHC.  Gulf Coast residents From Mexico Texas Border to Northern Texas keep monitoring this system over the weekend.

African satellite animation shows another strong wave about to roll off the coast and another strong wave behind that one.  Seems to me that the Cape Verde or (Cabo Verde) season has begun early.

RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
 STORM INVEST 92L
 


 




Friday, June 16, 2017

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 16, 2017 0436 PM EDT

Developing storm system over the northwest Caribbean is now a Storm Invest without the number at this time.  This system now has 10% chance of developing within 48hrs. and still remains a 60% chance within 5-days.  Thunderstorm activity continue to redevelop even with wind shear in the area.  Slow development over the weekend expected and into the first half of next weekend.

1012mb low associated with central Atlantic tropical wave seems like its becoming better organized as it continues to tracks westward in the lower latitudes.  This system now has a potential for development of 30% within 48hrs. and a 50% chance within the next 5-days.  Most of the models dissipate this system as it tracks through the southern East Caribbean sometime next week...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net






TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

4
Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook.


EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 16, 2017 1130 PM EDT

The west Caribbean a bit more active with scatter strong storms however, the wind shear still a bit strong in the area.  This system is gradually attempting to take shape.  NHC has up to this to a 60% chance of development within the next 5 days.

The wave west southwest of the Cape Verde Island or ( Cabo Verde) in Spanish has now has a 20% chance of development within the next 48hrs. and 40% within 5-days.

Watching another wave behind the one above even though non of the models suggest development...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net





Thursday, June 15, 2017

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 15, 2017 0918

Showers and storms more numerous in the Bay of Honduras and the west and northwest Caribbean.  Development forecast during the weekend.

Tropical Wave southwest of the Cape Verde no change in organization. 

Wave off the African coast looks less organized lost some of its convection (thunderstorms).  Development if any would be slow to occur...RTW





UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST



Tonight Jun 15, 2017 0435 PM EDT
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms:  Lows around 75°F.  Southeast wind to 9 MPH.  Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Jun 16
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs around 88°F.  Heat index around 93°F. South wind to 9 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night:  Lows around 75°F.  South southeast wind to 9 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Saturday Jun 17
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers during the day:  Highs around 88°F.  Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH.  Chance of rain 50 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 79°F.  East southeast wind to 9 MPH.  Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday Jun 18
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day:  Highs around 84°F.  Heat index around 93°F. East southeast wind 9 to 15 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night:  Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Monday Jun 19
Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the Day:  Highs around 88°F.  Heat index around 97°F. Southeast wind to 18 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night:  Lows around 79°F.  East southeast wind to 13 MPH.  Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tuesday Jun 20
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F.  Heat index around 97°F.  Southeast wind to 15 MPH.  Chance of rain 50 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms Night: Lows around 79°F.  East southeast wind to 11 MPH.  Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday Jun 21
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day:  Highs around 88°F.  Heat index around 95°F.  Southeast wind to 9 MPH, gusting to 15 MPH.  Chance of rain 40 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 81°F.  Heat index around 91°F.  East southeast wind to 11 MPH.  Chance of rain 40 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA




Local Radar

EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 15, 2017 0409 PM EDT

Still monitoring the northwest Caribbean as satellite continues to show signs of slow organization.  Development of this system is forecast to develop over the weekend.  There is a 50% chance for development with 5-days per NHC.

The wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has changed little in the past 24 hours.  So development of this wave if any will be slow to occur.  This wave has a 10% chance within 48hrs. and a20% chance within the next 5 days.

Another Strong wave moved off the coast of Africa and is also in the lower latitude so I will monitor this one closely as well...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net





EYE ON THE TROPICS JUNE 15, 2017 1115 AM EDT

Monitoring the northwest Caribbean and the Yucatan for development this weekend.  Showers and storms have increased in the GOH (Gulf of Honduras) and some of this will eventually track northwest toward the northwest Caribbean aiding in the development of low pressure.  Upper level conditions have become more favorable in the Gulf of Mexico for tropical development.  Chances for development have increase to 50% during the next 5 days per NHC.

The tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands still has a 10% chance for development during the next 48 hrs. and a 20% chance during the next 5 days

RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net




THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TODAY

49
Today's Updated Thunderstorm Outlook.