As of 0500 PM EDT Tropical Depression Four remains disorganized as it tracks through dry air and speeds across the Atlantic near 23 mph forward speed. This speed for tropical cyclone does not help in the development process and the storm produces its own wind shear of over the cloud structure.
The depression is tracking almost due west, however, according to 18z model XTRP the direction of travel is west of due north while the Invest previous and present track is directly westward.
Not much change is expected unless it slows down but that does not look likely, as a 1029 mb High pressure system near 35° N. Long. and 35° W. Lat. is helping to steer this system quickly across the Central Atlantic.
Remember what I mentioned yesterday a weak system always tends to track west to west-northwest. A tropical cyclones path are governed by trough and low pressure weakening the High pressures ridge. As the High pressure ridge is weaken it opens a passage way for a well organized tropical cyclone to move into. However, in the case of an Andrew storm the High pressure got stronger and the ridge built westward over the cyclone strengthening it and turning it westward. There was no strong low pressure system or trough to prevent that westward track. So this depression could remain on the westward or west-northwest track until it weakens further and dissipates.
RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
