TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 12, 2017 0342 PM EDT

The tropics remain quiet for now.  Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing across the Bahamas and the greater Antilles this afternoon.  This is mainly due to several troughs tracking westward across the area.  One of those trough is what was is left of T.D. 4 that is presently moving over the eastern Bahamas as it tracks westward.  So an increase in showers and storms can be expected during the next few days.  These storm cells are accompanied by gusty winds and frequent lightning so take cover when you hear thunder.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 12, 2017 1159 AM EDT

Four waves in the tropics and most are being suppressed by Sahara dust and dry air.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 11, 2017 0403 PM EDT

Still monitoring the remnants of TD 4 and the wave in the Atlantic.  Tropics remain quiet for now.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Today Jul 11, 2017

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East northeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Jul 12

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. Northeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. East northeast wind 5 to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Jul 13

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F-105°F. East wind 7 to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday Jul 14

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F-103°F. Southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Jul 15

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F-104°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 7 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday Jul 16

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F-104°F. Southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. Southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Monday Jul 17

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F-104°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 11, 2017 1157 AM EDT

What a difference and day makes.  Yesterday we were talking of two possible systems and today there is nothing to talk about.  This is going to be one of those years of forecast model confusion and systems that will be there one day and gone another.

The tropics remains quiet, there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 0934 PM EDT

An area of showers and storms associated with a trough of low at the surface which is north of the Leeward Islands are the remnants of T.D. 4. This system has been interacting with a mid to upper level low near 27°N and 57°W.  This upper low is presently affecting the thunderstorm activity that was more numerous earlier.  Wind shear over the low has cause the clouds to warm.  Pressures were falling earlier as this system was trying to make a come back but now pressures are rising again. System still has a nice circulation but once again its lacking thunderstorms at this time.  Development if any would be slow to occur....RTW

As for the Atlantic wave not much going on there either.  I will continue to monitor both system.

RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
 

 

INVEST 94L MODELS RESUMED

I JUST NOTICED THAT THEY HAVE RESUMED  THE MODEL RUN FOR INVEST 94L REMNANTS OF T.D. 4.
RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net