UPDATED MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST

Today Jul 11, 2017

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East northeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Jul 12

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. Northeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. East northeast wind 5 to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Jul 13

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F-105°F. East wind 7 to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday Jul 14

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 97°F-103°F. Southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Jul 15

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F-104°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH, gusting to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 7 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday Jul 16

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F-104°F. Southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. Southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Monday Jul 17

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F-104°F. Southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

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FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 11, 2017 1157 AM EDT

What a difference and day makes.  Yesterday we were talking of two possible systems and today there is nothing to talk about.  This is going to be one of those years of forecast model confusion and systems that will be there one day and gone another.

The tropics remains quiet, there are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 0934 PM EDT

An area of showers and storms associated with a trough of low at the surface which is north of the Leeward Islands are the remnants of T.D. 4. This system has been interacting with a mid to upper level low near 27°N and 57°W.  This upper low is presently affecting the thunderstorm activity that was more numerous earlier.  Wind shear over the low has cause the clouds to warm.  Pressures were falling earlier as this system was trying to make a come back but now pressures are rising again. System still has a nice circulation but once again its lacking thunderstorms at this time.  Development if any would be slow to occur....RTW

As for the Atlantic wave not much going on there either.  I will continue to monitor both system.

RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
 

 

INVEST 94L MODELS RESUMED

I JUST NOTICED THAT THEY HAVE RESUMED  THE MODEL RUN FOR INVEST 94L REMNANTS OF T.D. 4.
RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 10, 2017 0332 PM EDT.

I will spend more time talking about the remnants of T.D. 4 north of the Leeward Islands since it is closer to land than the Atlantic system at this time.

An area of showers and storms associated with a trough of low pressure at the surface which is north of the Leeward Islands are the remnants of T.D. 4.  This system has been interacting with a mid to upper level low near 27°N and 57°W.  Models have been hinting at some development as it tracks toward the west-northwest.  Pressure seems to be falling surrounding this system per some of the Buoys in the area. Regardless of development or not this system could bring showers and storms and squally conditions for the Bahamas and Florida in the coming days. I'm giving this system a 0% chance for development during the next 48hrs at this time.
RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

NEW UPDATE TO THIS 1147 AM EDT...TROPICAL UPDATE JULY 10, 2017 1043 AM EDT

 

1. There is a new future storm investigation in the Atlantic. A westward moving tropical wave located near 13°North Lat. 30°West Long. to 05°North Lat. 30°West Long. is now being monitored by NHC for development in the coming days. Low pressure may form along or east of the waves axis later today.  NHC is giving this system a LOW 0% chance within 48hrs. and a LOW 20% chance within the next 5-days.

 

2. Update to this post 1145 AM EDT...some models are suggesting some development with this system.  Whether it is weak development as some models suggest I don't want any surprises so I posted LOW 0% chance within 48hrs...RTW A Trough north of the Leeward Islands interacting with an mid to upper level low is still producing an area of showers and storms that has been nearly stationary.  This system will slowly track west-northwest in the coming days.

 

3. Another wave near western Cuba is also interacting with a broad mid to upper low in the northwest Caribbean and this is enhance rain and storm over southern Florida and the Florida straits this morning.

Eslewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 73hrs.

RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST JULY 9, 2017 0652 PM

Tonight Jul 9, 2017

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 7 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Monday Jul 10

Partly cloudy with scattered showers during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F-104°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Tuesday Jul 11

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F-104°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Jul 12

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East northeast wind 7 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. East northeast wind to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Jul 13

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around 99°F-104°F. Northeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the Night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 90°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday Jul 14

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°-102°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Jul 15

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F-102°F. Southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 90°F. East southeast wind to 6 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 9, 2017 0609 PM

The tropics remain quiet will continue to monitor the Atlantic for development next week.  The wave associated the remnants of tropical depression four that continues to interact with a mid to upper level low near 27° North Longitude and 57° West latitude will continue to track west-northwest toward the Bahamas and Southern Florida this week.  If these showers and storms continue they will spread across the Bahamas Monday thru Wednesday and move across Florida and Thursday maybe Friday.  Showers and thunderstorms and squally conditions can be expected as this system moves across the area.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net