18z MODEL RUN FOR STORM INVEST 95L JULY 17, 2017 0359 PM EDT

Invest 95L is still encountering wind shear and Sahara dust and dry air.  The convection (thunderstorms) associated with this system is minimal at this time.  This system will be affecting the Windward Islands tomorrow evening.

As for the other system behind 95L it is also experiencing some wind shear and Sahara dust and dry air.  So far this system looks to be an Atlantic system with no landfall.

RTW 

LIGHTNING ALERT 0243 PM EDT JUL 17, 2017

LIGHTNING DETECTED NEAR BY JULY 17 2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 17, 2017 1123 AM EDT

Other than the two Storm Investigation over the Central Atlantic the tropics remain quiet for now.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

12z MODEL RUN FOR INVEST 95L JULY 17, 2017 0951 AM EDT

Invest 95L still has a nice circulation but this morning it seems to be encountering some wind shear and dry Sahara dust and air.  It is noticeable on enhanced IR, water vapor and visible satellite.  You can see feathering of the clouds the cold cloud tops warming and thunderstorm activity has diminished some.  This system now has a Medium chance 50% within 48hrs. and a Med chance 50% within 5-days.

There is another system that I circled yesterday that NHC is now also monitoring that has a Low chance 20% within 48 hrs. and a Low chance 30% within 5-days.  This system is right behind Inest 95L.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

00z MODEL RUN FOR STORM INVEST 95L JULY 16, 2017 0941 PM EDT

Invest 95L getting better organized as it tracks westward.  Lesser Antilles should keep a close watch on this system.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 16, 2017 0900 PM EDT

There are four tropical waves and so far the only one I am monitoring closely other than INVEST 95L. Is a new wave near between 30°-40° West.  Models are suggesting development. If it does develop it will more than likely be a threat to the shipping lanes and not land.  I will keep you posted.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected for a day or two.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

STORM INVSTIGATION 95L UPDATE JULY 16, 2017 0742 PM EDT

I have posted this new INVEST 95L model run and most keep this system in the Caribbean.  So far this system is a threat for the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean.

I will keep you posted during this week.

RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 16, 2017 0131 AM EDT

Well we are watching an area of showers storm near 40°-42° West that some of the models are suggesting some development but short lived as it tracks into the East Caribbean.  I will keep you posted.  

Else where the tropics remains quiet.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 15, 2017 0255 PM EDT

1. Three tropical waves and no signs of organization at this time. 

2. There is one area of showers and storms near 40°West that models suggest some development as it tracks west towards the Lesser Antilles, so I will keep an eye on that one. 

3. Some convective activity (thunderstorms) in associated with a trough in the Bahamas that is tracking west toward Florida.  That will more than likely enhance showers and storms plus lightning tomorrow maybe on Monday. 

4. We also have the persistent trough in the Gulf that also has is producing thunderstorms with plenty of lightning along the Florida Big Bend westward over the northern Gulf waters.  This trough is also tracking slowly westward.

RTW

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 15, 2017 1220 AM EDT

The tropics remain quiet for now.  There are three waves and the one near Dominican Republic could enhance rain and storm chances for the Bahamas and Florida in the coming days.  Lightning detection network shows lightning over the southeast Bahamas and a portion of Dominican Republic and Haiti

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

DAY 1 THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 14, 2017 1024 AM EDT

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time!

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 13, 2017 0349 PM EDT

The troughs that brought much rains for Florida and plenty of lightning are moving into the Gulf of Mexico.  There is still one trough that is what was left of T.D. 4 that is along the west coast and that is bringing showers and storms north and south along the interior west and along the west coast as it progresses westward.  There is a slot of dry air moving in along the east coast and this is drying out a portion of the Southeast Florida coast and interior sections as well. However, I am seeing some more moisture developing offshore so you can rule out some more storms popping up during the evening and morning hours.

There is a tropical wave along Puerto Rico that the northern axis extends into the Atlantic and is also interacting with that mid to upper level low near 27°N. Long. and 60°-65°W. Lat.  This is also producing showers and storms along the northern axis which will track west and eventually bring more moisture across the Bahamas and Florida in the coming days.

Elsewhere the tropics remain quiet.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net