Thursday, July 20, 2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 20, 2017 1110 AM EDT

The tropics remains quiet for now. NHC stop posting on 96L but it is still being watched.  Sahara dry air and dust in the area not favorable for development at this time.  Also models have dropped it as well.  An area of showers and storms near 50°W and 15°N is still holding together so I will continue to watch it.  Other than that all is quiet.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net







Wednesday, July 19, 2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 19 2017 0453 PM EDT

The tropics remain quiet for now.  As for INVEST 96L they have not released another model run for this system at this time.  However, I noticed that there has been a burst of convection (thunderstorms) with this system, and if this trend continues then slow development is possible tonight and tomorrow.  This maybe a temporary burst of thunderstorms so I will continue to monitor it.  As for now there is no tropical cyclone threat.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net



 


MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST



Today Jul 19, 2017

Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 5 MPH, gusting to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.



Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 5 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.



Thursday Jul 20

Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 100°F. South wind to 5 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.



Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 79°F. East southeast wind to 5 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.



Friday Jul 21

Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 100°F. West southwest wind to 6 MPH, gusting to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.



Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 93°F. South wind to 6 MPH, gusting to 12 MPH. Chance of rain 60 percent.



Saturday Jul 22

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. South southeast wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.



Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.



Sunday Jul 23

Isolated Storms Day: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.



Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.



Monday Jul 24

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 100°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.



Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.



Tuesday Jul 25
Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 99°F. East wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA 







Local Radar

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 19, 2017 0105 PM EDT

The tropics remains quiet for now, but I am still monitoring Storm Invest 96L over the Central Atlantic.  This system is still encountering Sahara dust and dry air.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net





Tuesday, July 18, 2017

INVEST 96L 00Z MODEL UPDATE JULY 18, 2017 1128 PM EDT

96L MOVING THROUGH SAHARA DUST AND DRY AIR.  THIS SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING AT THIS TIME BUT STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.



DON DOWNGRADED TO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE JULY 18, 2017 1110 PM EDT

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Don Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017
1100 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017

...DON DEGENERATES TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 62.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Grenada.  The government of Barbados has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Vincent and the
Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that Don no longer has a center of circulation.  At 1100 PM AST
(0300 UTC), the remnants of Don were located near latitude 11.9
North, longitude 62.5 West.  The remnants are moving quickly toward
the west near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue during the next couple of days.

The aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40
mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.  These winds are occurring over
the waters of the far southeastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Gusts to tropical storm force in squalls are still possible
across the Windward Islands overnight.

RAINFALL:  The remnants of Don are expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts, across
Trinidad and Tobago, the southern Windward Islands, and northeastern
Venezuela through Wednesday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN
 
 

BRIEF MAP UPDATE FOR DON'S POSITION AND 00Z MODELS 0952 PM EDT

000
WTNT35 KNHC 182355
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017
800 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017

...DON ACCELERATING WESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES GRENADA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 61.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Bonaire.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba should
continue to monitor the progress of Don.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 61.4 West.  Don is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h).  This general motion
is expected through Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Don will move across the Windward Islands within the next few hours,
and then move westward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea late
tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24
hours.  The system is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low
pressure tonight or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the
Windward Islands within the warning area during the next several
hours.

RAINFALL:  Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts, across Trinidad and
Tobago and the southern Windward Islands through Wednesday.  These
rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides,
especially in mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg
 




 

TROPICAL STORM DON JULY 18, 2017 0510 PM EDT

000
WTNT35 KNHC 182036
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017
500 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017

...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 60.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire

Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, and Curacao should monitor
the progress of Don.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 60.0 West. Don is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general motion is
expected through Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Don will move across the Windward Islands this evening, and then
move westward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea late tonight
and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.
The system is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure
tonight or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the
Windward Islands within the warning area tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts across Barbados,
Trinidad and Tobago, and the southern Windward Islands through
Wednesday.  These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown 
 
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
 


  

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 18, 2017 0410 PM EDT

No change since last update tropics are quiet accept for tropical storm Don which is already bringing rains and squally conditions to the Windward Islands and Invest 96L in the Central Atlantic with a Low chance for development 30% during the next 48 hrs and 30% during the next five days.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

DAY-1 SPC THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 18, 2017 1226 PM EDT

Other than Tropical storm Don approaching the Windward Islands and Invest 96L the tropics remain quiet for now. 

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net



TROPICAL STORM DON JULY 18, 2017 11 AM EDT

000
WTNT35 KNHC 181455
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Don Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 18 2017

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS DON WEAKER AS IT HEADS TOWARD
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 58.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Grenada
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Bonaire

Interests in Trinidad and Tobago, Aruba, and Curacao should monitor
the progress of Don.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Don was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 58.0 West. Don is moving
toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h).  This general motion is
expected through Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Don will move across the Windward Islands later today or tonight,
and then move westward across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on
Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65
km/h) with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast
before Don moves through the Windward Islands.  The tropical storm
is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure late
Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late this afternoon and tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area by tonight.

RAINFALL:  Don is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts across Barbados,
Trinidad and Tobago, and the southern Windward Islands through
Wednesday.  These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown