000 WTNT31 KNHC 012035 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Emily Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017 ...EMILY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 77.7W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emily was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 77.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will continue to move away from Florida tonight and remain well off the southeast U.S. coast. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Emily is also forecast to lose its tropical characteristics later tonight or on Wednesday when it interacts with a frontal system. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tuesday, August 1, 2017
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY 0500 PM EDT
URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED AUG 1, 04
FLC086-012145-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0051.170801T2048Z-170801T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-
448 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
East central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...
* Until 545 PM EDT
* At 446 PM EDT, up to three inches of rain have fallen across
Downtown Miami, Brickell, and Coral Gables. The public has
reported ongoing urban flooding in these areas. While the heaviest
rain has ended, flooding is expected to continue over the next
hour.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Miami, Coral Gables, South Miami, Marlins Park and University Of
Miami.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage
areas and low lying spots.
&&
LAT...LON 2570 8023 2569 8032 2578 8022 2580 8018
2574 8019
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0051.170801T2048Z-170801T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-
448 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017
The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
East central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...
* Until 545 PM EDT
* At 446 PM EDT, up to three inches of rain have fallen across
Downtown Miami, Brickell, and Coral Gables. The public has
reported ongoing urban flooding in these areas. While the heaviest
rain has ended, flooding is expected to continue over the next
hour.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Miami, Coral Gables, South Miami, Marlins Park and University Of
Miami.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage
areas and low lying spots.
&&
LAT...LON 2570 8023 2569 8032 2578 8022 2580 8018
2574 8019
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 1 2017 0440 PM EDT
RTW: Ralph's Tropical Weather
1. Monitoring disorganized showers a storm which are part of a tropical wave and low pressure, that are more than likely being enhanced by the monsoonal trough in this area.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
1. Monitoring disorganized showers a storm which are part of a tropical wave and low pressure, that are more than likely being enhanced by the monsoonal trough in this area.
NHC is saying that this system have 10% chance within 48 hrs and 20% within the next 48 hrs.
There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW
2. See NHC Public Advisories and RTW Storm Track Page for forecast graphics and information on EMILY...RTW
3. Monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms south of a trough over the Gulf of Mexico which use to be part of the stationary front in the Atlantic. Low pressure is along this trough and the showers and storms have become more numerous. I will keep a eye on it just in case...RTW
TROPIC OUTLOOK AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY AUG 1 2017 1217 AM EDT
Emily tracking away for the Florida coast. Else where the tropics are looking quiet for now and none of the models are suggesting development at this time.
RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Monday, July 31, 2017
EMILY DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION JULY 31, 2017 0500 PM EDT
000 WTNT31 KNHC 312043 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Emily Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...EMILY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 81.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF SEBRING FLORIDA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the remainder of the Florida west coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emily was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 81.7 West. Emily is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this afternoon and early evening. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected by tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will continue to move farther inland over the central Florida peninsula this evening, and move offshore of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible while Emily moves across the central Florida peninsula tonight. Slow strengthening is forecast after Emily emerges over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across southeast Florida, with isolated storm totals up to 8 inches possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST
Today Jul 31, 2017
Mostly cloudy
with numerous showers during the day: Highs around 84°F. Heat index around
93°F. Southwest wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 70
percent.
Mostly cloudy
with numerous showers during the night: Lows around 81°F. Heat index around
90°F. Southwest wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 70
percent.
Tuesday Aug 1
Mostly cloudy
with thunderstorms likely during day: Highs around 88°F. Heat index around
97°F. South wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 60
percent.
Mostly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index
around 91°F. Southwest wind to 9 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Wednesday Aug 2
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around
99°F. South southeast wind to 10 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index
around 97°F. East southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Thursday Aug 3
Partly cloudy
with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index
around 99°F. Southeast wind 8 to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy
with isolated thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index
around 97°F. East southeast wind 9 to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday Aug 4
Partly cloudy
with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index
around 97°F. East southeast wind to 15 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index
around 97°F. East wind to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 40
percent.
Saturday Aug 5
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index
around 97°F. Southeast wind to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index
around 97°F. East southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday Aug 6
Partly cloudy
with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index
around 97°F. East southeast wind 11 to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.
FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR ARE COURTESY OF N.W.S IN MIAMI FL.
TROPICAL OUTLOOK JULY 31, 2017 1259 PM EDT
RTW: Ralph's Tropical Weather
1. Monitoring a strong cluster of storm west-southwest of Cape Verde Islands...RTW
1. Monitoring a strong cluster of storm west-southwest of Cape Verde Islands...RTW
2. Monitoring the Central Atlantic Wave no change in development...RTW
3. See NHC Public Advisories and RTW Storm Track Page for forecast graphics and information on EMILY...RTW
Elsewhere the tropics remain quiet for now.
CORRECTED FIRST IMAGE...1137 AM TROPICAL STORM EMILY JULY 31, 2017 1100 AM EDT
000 WTNT31 KNHC 311434 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...EMILY APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 82.8W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Bonita Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.8 West. Emily is moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed are expected by tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily is expected to move inland over the the west-central Florida peninsula this afternoon, and move across central Florida through tonight. Emily is forecast to move offshore of the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs this afternoon. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression while it moves across the Florida peninsula later today and tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. Reports from amateur radio operators indicate that street and road flooding has already been occurring in Manatee and Sarasota Counties near the Myakka River. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area through this afternoon. TORNADOES: A brief tornado could occur across the central and southern Florida Peninsula today, with isolated waterspouts possible over the coastal waters of southwestern Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
JUST CORRECTED BOTTOM IMAGE I HAD PLACE THE EARLIER IMAGE THIS IS NOW CURRENT RTW
TROPICAL STORM EMILY WEST OF TAMPA WARNINGS ISSUES JULY 31 2017 0954 AM EDT
000 WTNT31 KNHC 311139 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Emily Special Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017 800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM WEST OF TAMPA BAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 83.2W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Anclote River southward to Bonita Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Bonita Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Emily was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 83.2 West. Emily is moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected tonight or Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Emily is expected to move inland over the the west-central Florida peninsula later today and move across central Florida through tonight. Emily is expected to move offshore of the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday. NOAA Doppler radar data from Tampa, Florida, indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs this afternoon. Emily is expected to weaken to a tropical depression while it moves across the Florida peninsula tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Emily is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday night along the west coast of central Florida between the Tampa Bay area and Naples, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches possible. Elsewhere across central and south Florida, 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with localized amounts of up to 4 inches possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area through this afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Sunday, July 30, 2017
EYE ON THE TROPICS JULY 30 2017 1050 PM EDT
RTW: Ralph's Tropical Weather
1. Monitoring a strong cluster of storm moving off the African west coast. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW
1. Monitoring a strong cluster of storm moving off the African west coast. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW
2. Monitoring the Central Atlantic Wave that has some potential for development as it tracks westward...RTW
3. Not much going on with the low west of Tampa. This non-tropical low has the potential for sub-tropical or tropical development during the next few days as it tracks toward the west coast. This system has a the potential to produce heavy rains and storms. The potential for floods is likely as this system tracks slowly westward...RTW
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