TRACKING THE TROPICS AUG 5, 2017 1046 PM EDT

 RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather
1. INVEST 99L continue to show some consolidation of the showers and storms.  Once the convection (thunderstorms) clusters together we can see further organization into a tropical cyclone into the coming week...RTW

2.  INVEST 90L This system has been trying to organize during the day. I do believe that as this system tracks further west it may develop into a depression or tropical storm...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

STORM INVEST 99L

STORM INVEST 90L

TRACKING THE TROPICS AUG 5, 2017 0110 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

1. INVEST 99L Showers and storm seems to be consolidating and seem more concentrated.  So far most of the models in the 12z run don't show much organization with 99L so will have to continue watching as it tracks west-northwest. Model track are flip flopping some are tracking north of the islands in previous run and now they are tracking south into the Caribbean or over the greater Antilles.  I will continue to monitor into next week...RTW

2.  INVEST 90L Thunderstorms are accumulated more now that the wave southern axis is not interacting with Colombia.  This system now has a 30% chance for development within 48 hrs. and a 50% chance within 5-days...RTW

STORM INVEST 99L

STORM INVEST 90L

TRACKING THE TROPICS AUG 4, 2017 1128 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

1. INVEST 99L Not much going on with this system at this time.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable as this system tracks west to a west-northwest in the coming week. The atmosphere to the north of this system is still setup for a track mainly to the west northwest and if this persist it could be a problem for the U.S. east coast in the coming weeks...RTW

2.  INVEST 90L is gradually gaining organization as it tracks further west toward the  Yucatan and into the BOC (Bay of Campeche) in the coming week...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

STORM INVESTIGATION 99L

 STORM INVESTIGATION 90L

TRACKING THE TROPICS AUG 4, 2017 0405 PM EDT

Note I will do the website update later this evening.  For now I will release the 18z Model run and other tracking maps on 99L and 90L.  A full update for the 00z run after 0800 pm edt...RTW

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity several hundred miles south and
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions
appear conducive for this system to consolidate and develop during
the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
the early or middle part of next week while moving
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea.  This disturbance is
expected to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the
western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche through the middle of next
week, where environmental conditions appear conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Berg 

STORM INVEST 99L

STORM INVEST 90L