TRACKING THE TROPICS AUG 3, 2017 0518 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

1. I am still monitoring that strong wave that moved off the coast of over night.  NHC is now on board with this wave as well and is giving this wave a LOW Chance 30% within 48 hrs. and High 70% within 5-days. This is the wave to watch as future patterns don't favor for a recurve to the north and away from the east coast. of the U.S.  Still to far out so will continue to watch it closely...RTW

2.  The tropics are popping with another strong wave in the East Caribbean. This wave if forecast to develop some as it track west toward the BOC (Bay of Campeche) Southern Gulf of Mexico.  That may be a threat for Mexico or the Gulf coast.  NHC gives this system a 10% chance within 48 hrs and a Low 20% chance within the 5-days.
RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

STORM INVEST 99L

STORM INVEST 90L

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 3, 2017 1211 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

Storm Investigation 99L
1. I am still monitoring that strong wave that moved off the coast of over night.  NHC is now on board with this wave as well and is giving this wave a LOW Chance 30% within 48 hrs. and 60% within 5-days. This is the wave to watch as future patterns don't favor for a re-curve to the north and away from the east coast. of the U.S.  Still to far out so will continue to watch it closely...RTW

Elsewhere the tropics remain relatively quiet.  I will keep you posted.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

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MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAYS FORECAST

Tonight AUG 2, 2017

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 95°F. South southeast wind to 8 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Aug 3

Mostly Sunny during the day: Highs around 91°F. Heat index around 104°F. Southeast wind 7 to 14 MPH.

Mostly Clear during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 10 MPH.

Friday Aug 4

Mostly Sunny    Day: Mostly sunny. Highs around 91°F. Heat index around 100°F. East southeast wind 11 to 16 MPH, gusting to 21 MPH.

Partly Cloudy during the night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 93°F. East wind to 15 MPH.

Saturday Aug 5

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 91°F. Heat index around 97°F. Southeast wind to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Isolated Storms Night: Lows around 82°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind 11 to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Aug 6

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 15 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Monday Aug 7

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 95°F. East southeast wind to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind to 15 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday Aug 8

Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms during the day: Highs around 90°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 15 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered showers during the night: Lows around 84°F. Heat index around 95°F. East wind to 16 MPH. Chance of rain 40 percent.

FORECAST MAPS AND LIVE RADAR IS COURTESY OF N.W.S. IN MIAMI FLORIDA

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 2, 2017 0407 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

1. Monitoring swirl of clouds that moved off the coast of African coast.  There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.

2. An area of showers and storms over the eastern Gulf and Central Florida is associated with a trough of low pressures.  This trough is forecast to track northeast across northern Florida and bring rains and storms to the Peninsula Today and tomorrow...RTW

PLEASE HELP SUPPORT RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER SO I CAN BETTER SERVE YOU WITH BETTER SITE FEATURES AND WEATHER TOOLS TO POST ON HERE.  ALL THIS COAST MONEY AND I CAN'T DO IT WITHOUT YOUR HELP.
THANKS
RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 2, 2017 1110 AM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

1. Monitoring swirl of clouds moving off the coast of Africa.  There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time.

2. Ana area of showers and storms that seems to be ahead of a tropical wave continues to generate rains and storms.  Sahara dust to the north of the waves axis is preventing development at this time.  There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

3.  Monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms along a trough draped across the Eastern Gulf and north and central Florida.  This trough is producing heavy rains a storms off  shore Tampa Bay and over Central and a portion of Northern Florida.  This trough is also associated with low pressure and it is forecast to track northeast over the Florida Big Bend.  Some models suggest weak development in the form of rains and storms as it tracks over the northern part of the state.  I will watch  it closely! 

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY 0500 PM EDT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 012035
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Emily Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017

...EMILY CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 77.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Emily
was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 77.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple
of days. On the forecast track, the center of Emily will continue to
move away from Florida tonight and remain well off the southeast
U.S. coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Emily is also forecast to lose its tropical characteristics later
tonight or on Wednesday when it interacts with a frontal system.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart 

URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY ISSUED AUG 1, 04

FLC086-012145-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0051.170801T2048Z-170801T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Miami-Dade FL-
448 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
East central Miami-Dade County in southeastern Florida...

* Until 545 PM EDT

* At 446 PM EDT, up to three inches of rain have fallen across 
Downtown Miami, Brickell, and Coral Gables. The public has 
reported ongoing urban flooding in these areas. While the heaviest 
rain has ended, flooding is expected to continue over the next 
hour. 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Miami, Coral Gables, South Miami, Marlins Park and University Of
Miami.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of urban 
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
areas and low lying spots.

&&

LAT...LON 2570 8023 2569 8032 2578 8022 2580 8018
2574 8019

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 1 2017 0440 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather

1. Monitoring disorganized showers a storm which are part of a tropical wave and low pressure, that are more than likely being enhanced by the monsoonal trough in this area.

NHC is saying that this system have 10% chance within 48 hrs and 20% within the next 48 hrs.

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

2. See NHC Public Advisories and RTW Storm Track Page for forecast graphics and information on EMILY...RTW

3.  Monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms south of a trough over the Gulf of Mexico which use to be part of the stationary front in the Atlantic.  Low pressure is along this trough and the showers and storms have become more numerous.  I will keep a eye on it just in case...RTW 

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TROPIC OUTLOOK AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY AUG 1 2017 1217 AM EDT

Emily tracking away for the Florida coast.  Else where the tropics are looking quiet for now and none of the models are suggesting development at this time.

RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net