Wednesday, August 9, 2017

FRANKLIN BECOMES A HURRICANE, WARNINGS UP FOR THE MEXICAN COAST 0400 PM EDT AUG 9



000
WTNT32 KNHC 092041
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

...FRANKLIN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2017 ATLANTIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 94.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Puerto Dos Bocas
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 94.9 West.  Franklin is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.  On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to cross the
coast in the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is expected until
the center crosses the coast.  Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall in Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of
Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo,
Queretar and eastern San Luis Potosi in eastern Mexico.  These rains
will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area tonight.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the Bay of
Campeche through tonight.  Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Mexico by
this evening.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 
 Ralph's tropical Weather RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
 

TROPIC OUTLOOK 0430 PM EDT AUG 9, 2017


RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather
1.  INVEST 99L Still being monitored for possible development by next week as it moves to a more favorable environment...RTW

3.  INFORMATION ON FRANKLIN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES....RTW

4.  Clouds showers and storms over the Bahamas and eastern Cuba is associated with a mid to upper level trough that is interacting with a tropical wave over the Caymans and Western Cuba.  Some of the models show a weak elongated area of showers a storms that will track slowly toward the Florida east coast and others show it dissipating.  i will keep a close eye on it...RTW 
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 
 STORM INVEST 99L






 


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0133 PM EDT AUG 9 2017

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather
1.  INVEST 99L Still being monitored for possible development by next week as it moves to a more favorable environment...RTW

3.  INFORMATION ON FRANKLIN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES....RTW



FRANKLIN 1000 AM EDT UPDATE AUG 9, 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 091452
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

...FRANKLIN ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 93.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Puerto Dos Bocas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Puerto Dos Bocas
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 93.9 West.  Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.  On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected, and Franklin is
forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the coast of
Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday.  Rapid weakening is
expected after landfall in Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft
observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through today.  Rainfall totals of 4 to
8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Luis Potosi in
eastern Mexico.  These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight.  Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 
 

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

FRANKLIN 0400 PM EDT AUG 8, 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 082033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 90.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Sabancuy
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 90.3 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A mainly
westward motion is expected over the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin will move into the Bay of
Campeche in a few hours, move westward across the Bay of Campeche
tonight and Wednesday, and be near the coast of mainland Mexico
Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
A strengthening trend is likely to begin when the center moves
over water, and Franklin could be near hurricane intensity at
landfall in the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Franklin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, and isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches are possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico through Wednesday.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible across northern
portions of Belize and northern portions of Guatemala.  Rainfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern
Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro and eastern
San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico.  These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions may be occurring over portions of
the northern and western Yucatan peninsula.  Hurricane conditions
are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Wednesday evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
Warning area in mainland Mexico by Wednesday evening.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
through Wednesday morning.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center
makes landfall in the Hurricane Watch area.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 
 
 Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW  http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net



 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 8, 2017 1209 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather
1.  INVEST 99L Still being monitored for possible development by this weekend as it moves to a more favorable environment...RTW

2.  INFORMATION ON FRANKLIN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES....RTW


http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

 

FRANKLIN UPDATE 1000 AM EDT AUG 8, 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 081432
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 89.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio
Panuco, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of
the Yucatan Peninsula from east of Rio Lagartos and southward to
Chetumal.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Sabancuy
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 89.6 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will
move into the Bay of Campeche later today, move westward across the
Bay of Campeche tonight and Wednesday, and be near the coast of
mainland Mexico Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is likely until the center moves back over water, and
strengthening is expected thereafter until landfall occurs in
mainland Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Franklin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches are possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico through Wednesday.  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible across northern
portions of Belize and northern portions of Guatemala.  Rainfall
totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern
Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern
San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico.  These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely still occurring over
portions of the northern and western Yucatan peninsula.
Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area
by Wednesday evening.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico by
Wednesday evening.  Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area today and tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center
makes landfall in the Hurricane Watch area.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 
 
 Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
 

FRANKLIN UPDATE 05-08AM AUG 8, 2017 EDT POSITION

000
WTNT32 KNHC 081156
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
700 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017

...FRANKLIN MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 89.1W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Belize has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Belize.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 89.1 West.  Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will
continue to move across the Yucatan peninsula today, and emerge over
the Bay of Campeche this evening or tonight.  Franklin will then
move westward across the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected while Franklin
moves across the Yucatan peninsula today.  Restrengthening is
forecast to begin tonight and Wednesday while Franklin moves over
the Bay of Campeche.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over
the Mexican state of Quintana Roo.  In addition, Franklin is
expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts
up to 15 inches through Thursday to northern Veracruz, Puebla,
Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico.
These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely still occurring over
portions of the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula.  These
conditions should spread westward across the remainder of the
warning area today and diminish along the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula later this morning.  Hurricane or tropical storm
conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late
Wednesday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area tonight and Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 
 




 

Monday, August 7, 2017

FRANKLIN UPDATE 1100 PM EDT AUG 7, 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 080241
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

...FRANKLIN POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY SOON...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 87.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of mainland Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz northward to Rio Panuco.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward from
Campeche to Sabancuy, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
west of Sabancuy to east of Puerto de Veracruz.  The Hurricane Watch
for the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the Belize/Mexico border
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 87.3 West.  Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A west-
northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple
of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will cross
the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula in the next hour or two,
traverse the Yucatan peninsula overnight and on Tuesday, and emerge
over the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday.  Franklin will then continue
westward across the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected while Franklin moves across the Yucatan
peninsula overnight and on Tuesday.  Restrengthening is forecast
Tuesday night and Wednesday while Franklin moves over the Bay of
Campeche.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over
the Mexican state of Quintana Roo.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions
of the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula and should spread
westward across the remainder of the warning area overnight and on
Tuesday.  Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area by late Wednesday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg 
 





 

FRANKLIN UPDATE 0400 PM EDT AUG 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 072032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE BEFORE LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 85.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.  A Hurricane Watch may be required for a
portion of the southwestern Gulf coast of Mexico this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 85.9 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next 48
hours.  On the forecast track, the center will be near the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening or tonight.  Franklin
is then expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday,
and into the Bay of Campeche Tuesday evening or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before the center reaches the
Yucatan Peninsula, and Franklin could be near hurricane intensity at
landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over
the Mexican state of Quintana Roo.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area by this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in portions of the warning area this afternoon or evening.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico
on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch