Monday, August 7, 2017

FRANKLIN UPDATE 1100 PM EDT AUG 7, 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 080241
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

...FRANKLIN POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY SOON...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 87.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast
of mainland Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz northward to Rio Panuco.
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward from
Campeche to Sabancuy, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
west of Sabancuy to east of Puerto de Veracruz.  The Hurricane Watch
for the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the Belize/Mexico border
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 87.3 West.  Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A west-
northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next couple
of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will cross
the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula in the next hour or two,
traverse the Yucatan peninsula overnight and on Tuesday, and emerge
over the Bay of Campeche late Tuesday.  Franklin will then continue
westward across the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected while Franklin moves across the Yucatan
peninsula overnight and on Tuesday.  Restrengthening is forecast
Tuesday night and Wednesday while Franklin moves over the Bay of
Campeche.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over
the Mexican state of Quintana Roo.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions
of the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula and should spread
westward across the remainder of the warning area overnight and on
Tuesday.  Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within
the hurricane watch area by late Wednesday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg 
 





 

FRANKLIN UPDATE 0400 PM EDT AUG 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 072032
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE BEFORE LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 85.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.  A Hurricane Watch may be required for a
portion of the southwestern Gulf coast of Mexico this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 85.9 West. Franklin is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a
west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next 48
hours.  On the forecast track, the center will be near the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening or tonight.  Franklin
is then expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday,
and into the Bay of Campeche Tuesday evening or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before the center reaches the
Yucatan Peninsula, and Franklin could be near hurricane intensity at
landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over
the Mexican state of Quintana Roo.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area by this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in portions of the warning area this afternoon or evening.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico
on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 
 

 

FRANKLIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 0100 PM EDT AUG 7 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 071750
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE BEFORE LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 85.4 West.  Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours.  On
the forecast track, the center of Franklin will be near the east
coast of the Yucatan peninsula by this evening.  Franklin is then
expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the east
coast of the Yucatan peninsula, and Franklin could be near hurricane
strength by the time landfall occurs this evening or tonight.  Some
weakening is likely while the system moves across the Yucatan
Peninsula on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over
the Mexican state of Quintana Roo.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area by this evening.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in portions of the warning area this afternoon or evening.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico
on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 



 

LANDFALL PROBABILITIES FOR THIS SEASON INCREASED TO 61%

Forecast update for storm landfall this season along the Florida coast increased from 51% to 61%. We need to be Hurricane Ready!

https://twitter.com/WPLGLocal10/status/894616650737221632 

FRANKLIN MAY ALREADY BE A HURRICANE AUG 7, 2017 0135 PM EDT

Seems to me that when Air Force Recon plane reaches to storm it may be Hurricane Franklin. This looks like an eye trying to form north of where 1000 AM coordinate location. You can see the buzz saw shape it has taken and the inflow and outflow clouds all around the cyclone looking rather impressive. Water temps 30° C which equates to 86° F very warn sea surface temps, tropical cyclone fuel to thrive on...RTW

TROPCIAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 7, 2017 1205 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather
1.  Another strong wave or cluster of storms way South of the Cape Verde Islands (Islas de Cabo Verde) is tracking west...RTW


2.  INVEST 99L still not well organized seems to be affected by dry air and some wind shear.  I will continue to watch it....RTW

3.  TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES.   A THREAT TO MEXICO, BUT NOT A THREAT TO THE U.S....RTW


http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

FRANKLIN UPDATE 1000 AM EDT AUG 7, 2017

000
WTNT32 KNHC 071433
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

...FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 85.1 West.  Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours.  On
the forecast track, the center of Franklin will be near the east
coast of the Yucatan peninsula by this evening.  Franklin is then
expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the east coast
of the Yucatan peninsula, and Franklin could be near hurricane
strength by the time landfall occurs this evening or tonight.  Some
weakening is likely while the system moves across the Yucatan
Peninsula on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over
the Mexican state of Quintana Roo.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area by this evening.  Tropical Storm conditions are expected to
begin in portions of the warning area this afternoon or evening.
Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico
on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch 


 LATEST SATELLITE REVIEW OF FRANKLIN SUGGEST THAT FRANKLIN IS MATURING INTO A HURRICANE QUICKLY.  RTW


 

TRACKING THE TROPICS AUG 7 2017 1040 AM EDT

Invest 99L is moving through dry air and this has been hindering development.  However, regardless of the dry air this system seems to have developed some moisture and storms are consolidating once again.  Upper level environment ahead of this system near 60°N is unfavorable due to a mid to upper level low north of Puerto Rico.  Development if any will be slow to occur.  As for the models I would not pay to much attention to them since we have a disorganized system that could go where ever the steering currents take it.  RTW




 

Sunday, August 6, 2017

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 6 2017 1132 PM EDT

RTW:  Ralph's Tropical Weather
1.  Another strong wave South of the Cape Verde Islands (Islas de Callo Verde)...RTW


2.  INVEST 99L Looking ill defined, development if any will be slow to occur...RTW

3.  TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES...RTW
 
 
 

FRANKNLIN FORMS IN THE CARIBBEAN AUG 6 2017 1100 PM EDT

000
WTNT32 KNHC 070244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 83.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
Gulf coast of Mexico from south of Campeche to Sabancuy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 83.0 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours.  On
the forecast track, the center will pass north of Honduras tonight
and early Monday, then approach the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula on Monday afternoon.  The system is forecast to move
across the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast before Franklin reaches the eastern coast
of the Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center, mainly to the northeast.  NOAA buoy 42057 in the
northwest Caribbean Sea has recently reported peak sustained winds
of 40 mph with a gust to 49 mph.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area by Monday afternoon.  Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in portions of the watch area in Belize by Monday
afternoon.  Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch
area in Mexico on Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
 
 
 
 

INVEST 99L LOOKING ILL DEFINED AND SEEM TO BE RUNNING OUT OF GAS.

99L seems to be running out of gas.  I be surprise if this system makes a come back.  I will continue to monitor it but as it is now it looks ill defined.






POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN ISSUED AT 0800 PM EDT BY NHC AUG 6, 2017


NHC HAS ISSUED AT 0800 PM EDT A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY ON INVEST 90L AND NOW IT IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 062339
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.1 North, longitude 82.7 West.  The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is
expected to continue over the next 48 hours.  On the forecast track,
the center will pass north of Honduras tonight and early Monday,
then approach the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula Monday
afternoon.  The system is forecast to move across Yucatan Peninsula
Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts, and an increase in strength is forecast during the next day
or so.

Upper-level winds are becoming more conducive for development, and
the disturbance is likely to become a tropical cyclone overnight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin in portions
of the warning area by Monday afternoon or evening.  Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in portions of the watch area by Monday
afternoon or evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Zelinsky