2. INVEST 99L Still being monitored for possible development by next week as it moves to a more favorable environment...RTW
Thursday, August 10, 2017
TRACKING THE TROPICS 0437 PM EDT AUG 10, 2017
RTW: Ralph's Tropical Weather1. Will be monitoring the coast of Africa into next week for more possible development....RTW
3. Trough of low pressure over the west Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida could bring heavy rains to the Bahamas and a portion of Florida during a day or two. Models do not suggest a strong system but most show a weak low tracking north-northeast along the east coast of Florida...RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1142 AM EDT AUG 10
RTW: Ralph's Tropical Weather
1. INVEST 99L Still being monitored for possible development by next week as it moves to a more favorable environment...RTW
NHC ISSUED THEIR LAST ADVISORY ON FRANKLIN AT 1000 AM EDT
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
Wednesday, August 9, 2017
FRANKLIN BECOMES A HURRICANE, WARNINGS UP FOR THE MEXICAN COAST 0400 PM EDT AUG 9
000 WTNT32 KNHC 092041 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 ...FRANKLIN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2017 ATLANTIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 94.9W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Puerto Dos Bocas * The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 94.9 West. Franklin is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to cross the coast in the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected until the center crosses the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Luis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Mexico by this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
TROPIC OUTLOOK 0430 PM EDT AUG 9, 2017
RTW: Ralph's Tropical Weather
1. INVEST 99L Still being monitored for possible development by next week as it moves to a more favorable environment...RTW
3. INFORMATION ON FRANKLIN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES....RTW
3. INFORMATION ON FRANKLIN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES....RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
STORM INVEST 99L
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0133 PM EDT AUG 9 2017
1. INVEST 99L Still being monitored for possible development by next week as it moves to a more favorable environment...RTW
3. INFORMATION ON FRANKLIN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES....RTW
3. INFORMATION ON FRANKLIN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES....RTW
FRANKLIN 1000 AM EDT UPDATE AUG 9, 2017
000 WTNT32 KNHC 091452 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 ...FRANKLIN ALMOST A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 93.9W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Puerto Dos Bocas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Puerto Dos Bocas * The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 93.9 West. Franklin is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through today. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Luis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Mexico by this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tuesday, August 8, 2017
FRANKLIN 0400 PM EDT AUG 8, 2017
000 WTNT32 KNHC 082033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 ...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOON... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 90.3W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Sabancuy * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 90.3 West. Franklin is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A mainly westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will move into the Bay of Campeche in a few hours, move westward across the Bay of Campeche tonight and Wednesday, and be near the coast of mainland Mexico Wednesday night or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A strengthening trend is likely to begin when the center moves over water, and Franklin could be near hurricane intensity at landfall in the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible across northern portions of Belize and northern portions of Guatemala. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions may be occurring over portions of the northern and western Yucatan peninsula. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area through Wednesday morning. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 8, 2017 1209 PM EDT
RTW: Ralph's Tropical Weather
1. INVEST 99L Still being monitored for possible development by this weekend as it moves to a more favorable environment...RTW
2. INFORMATION ON FRANKLIN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES....RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
1. INVEST 99L Still being monitored for possible development by this weekend as it moves to a more favorable environment...RTW
2. INFORMATION ON FRANKLIN REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LINK ON THIS PAGE FOR UPDATES....RTW
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
FRANKLIN UPDATE 1000 AM EDT AUG 8, 2017
000 WTNT32 KNHC 081432 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 ...FRANKLIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 89.6W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Yucatan Peninsula from east of Rio Lagartos and southward to Chetumal. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Sabancuy * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 89.6 West. Franklin is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will move into the Bay of Campeche later today, move westward across the Bay of Campeche tonight and Wednesday, and be near the coast of mainland Mexico Wednesday night or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is likely until the center moves back over water, and strengthening is expected thereafter until landfall occurs in mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible across northern portions of Belize and northern portions of Guatemala. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely still occurring over portions of the northern and western Yucatan peninsula. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico by Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area today and tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Watch area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Ralph's Tropical Weather RTW http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
FRANKLIN UPDATE 05-08AM AUG 8, 2017 EDT POSITION
000 WTNT32 KNHC 081156 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Franklin Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 700 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017 ...FRANKLIN MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 89.1W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Belize has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Belize. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Sabancuy A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Sabancuy to Puerto de Veracruz A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 89.1 West. Franklin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward to westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin will continue to move across the Yucatan peninsula today, and emerge over the Bay of Campeche this evening or tonight. Franklin will then move westward across the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected while Franklin moves across the Yucatan peninsula today. Restrengthening is forecast to begin tonight and Wednesday while Franklin moves over the Bay of Campeche. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. In addition, Franklin is expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts up to 15 inches through Thursday to northern Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely still occurring over portions of the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula. These conditions should spread westward across the remainder of the warning area today and diminish along the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula later this morning. Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area tonight and Wednesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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