Wednesday, August 30, 2017

12z MODEL RUN FOR HARVEY AND NEWLY FORM TROPICAL STORM IRMA 1031 AM EDT AUG 30, 2017

HARVEY INLAND OVER LOUISIANA  DUMPING MORE RAINS OVER THAT STATE. 

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM IRMA WEST OF THE CABO VERDE OR (CAPE VERDE ISLANDS), NHC WILL BEGIN ISSUING ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM AT 11 AM EDT AUG 30, 2017. 

IRMA COULD BE THE NEXT MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. 

SOME PREVIOUS MODELS RE-CURVE THIS STORM SYSTEM NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEA BOARD, BUT ITS STILL TO EARLY TO KNOW THE ACTUAL TRACK IT WILL TAKE.  STAY TUNED HERE FOR UPDATES.


Tuesday, August 29, 2017

STORM INVESTIGATION 93L 1139 PM EDT AUG 29, 2017

MONITORING INVEST 93L THAT HAS HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THIS COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM AT ANYTIME.  MOST OF THE MODEL KEEP THIS SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  SO EYES ON THIS ONE INTO NEXT WEEK.




HARVEY UPDATE 1100 PM EDT AUG 29, 2017

...HARVEY STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...


000
WTNT34 KNHC 300253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...HARVEY STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER FAR EAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 93.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of Louisiana has been
extended eastward to Grand Isle.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of Texas has been
discontinued to the south of Freeport.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Holly Beach to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to west of Holly Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Freeport Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.  Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 to 24 hours in the indicated locations.  For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 93.6 West. Harvey is
moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). A north-
northeastward motion is expected later tonight and this general
motion should continue through Wednesday night.  On the forecast
track, the center of Harvey is expected to move inland over the
northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is anticipated before the center
crosses the coast, but gradual weakening should begin thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches to the north and east of Houston
from far east Texas into southwestern Louisiana.  Isolated storm
totals will reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including
the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area.  These rains are currently
producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large
portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.  DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.  Please see warnings and
products issued by your local National Weather Service office for
additional information on this life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches across portions of southern Louisiana into coastal
Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall associated with Harvey will spread
north by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches
spreading into portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley.

A preliminary report from a rain gauge has broken the Texas tropical
cyclone rainfall record.  The Cedar Bayou gauge, east of Highlands,
Texas, has reported 51.88 inches of rain as of 3 PM CDT.  This total
is higher than the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical
cyclone Amelia of 1978 at Medina, Texas.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Holly Beach to Morgan City...2 to 4 ft
San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach including Galveston Bay...1 to
3 ft
Morgan City to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist through
Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Wednesday across
parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, and southeast
Arkansas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown 
 




 

HARVEY AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN UPDATE 0514 PM EDT AUG 29, 2017




...HARVEY CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST DUMPING CATASTROPHIC RAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...


000
WTNT34 KNHC 292039
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...HARVEY CRAWLING TOWARD THE COAST DUMPING CATASTROPHIC RAINS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 94.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Holly Beach to Morgan
City Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Holly Beach to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to west of Holly Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port O'Connor to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City to Grand Isle

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.  Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 12 to 24 hours in the indicated locations.  For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
estimated from data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane near
latitude 29.2 North, longitude 94.3 West.  Harvey is moving toward
the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. On the forecast track,
the broad circulation center of Harvey is expected to move inland
over the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning
area by early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No significant change in strength is anticipated before the center
crosses the coast, but gradual weakening should begin thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.  Galveston recently reported a sustained wind of
39 mph and a gust to 54 mph.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance
plane was 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches to the north and east of Houston
from far east Texas into southwestern Louisiana.  Isolated storm
totals will reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including
the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area.  These rains are currently
producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large
portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.  DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.  Please see warnings and
products issued by your local National Weather Service office for
additional information on this life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5
to 10 inches across portions of southern Louisiana into coastal
Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall associated with Harvey will spread
north by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches
spreading into portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley.

A preliminary report from a rain gauge has broken the Texas tropical
cyclone rainfall record.  The Cedar Bayou gauge, east of Highlands,
Texas, has reported 51.88 inches of rain as of 3 PM CDT.  This total
is higher than the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical
cyclone Amelia of 1978 at Medina, Texas.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Holly Beach to Morgan City...2 to 4 ft
San Luis Pass to west of Holly Beach including Galveston Bay...1 to
3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist
during the next day or so. Tropical storms conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 24 hours.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today from extreme
southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi and coastal Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


 
...DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


000
WTNT35 KNHC 292031
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 74.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All tropical storm warnings for the coast of North Carolina have
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal tropical watches or warnings in effect.

High wind warnings are in effect for coastal portions of
northeastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the eastern
shore of Virginia and Maryland through this evening.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered off the
coast of North Carolina near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 74.3
West.  The system is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31
km/h), and it is expected to accelerate further toward the northeast
and east-northeast during the next couple of days.  The disturbance
will continue to move away from the North Carolina coast over the
western Atlantic Ocean tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to strengthen at sea and become a
hurricane-force extratropical low over the northwestern Atlantic
Ocean by Wednesday evening.  The system is not expected to become a
tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Strong winds, with gusts up to 55 mph, are expected across
coastal portions of northeastern North Carolina, southeastern
Virginia, and the eastern shore of Virginia and Maryland through
this evening.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from the southeast Virginia coast
into the Delmarva through Wednesday. The heavier rains may result in
some flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the North Carolina and Virginia coasts during the next day or so,
creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Berg 
 


 

LATEST 18Z MODEL RUN FOR ALL THE STORM SYSTEMS 0322 PM EDT AUG 29, 2017

HERE ARE THE LATES MODEL RUN 18Z FOR HARVEY, TD TEN AND INVEST 93L IN THE ATLANTIC THAT BARES WATCHING.
HARVEY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN

STORM INVEST 93L (BARES WATCHING)


FULL TROPICAL UPDATE WEBSITE IS ALSO READY! 1247 PM EDT AUG 29, 2017

...RELENTLESS TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE, AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 291501
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...RELENTLESS TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN
A SAFE PLACE, AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 94.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Morgan
City Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from east of Morgan City to
Grand Isle Louisiana.

The Tropical Storm Warning from Port O'Connor to Mesquite Bay
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port O'Connor to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City to Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to Morgan City

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.  Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 94.3 West. Harvey is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general
north-northeast track is expected today and tomorrow.  On the
forecast track, the center of Harvey is expected to be just offshore
of the middle and upper coasts of Texas through tonight, then move
inland over the northwestern Gulf coast early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected before the
center moves inland. A gradual weakening should begin thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches through Friday over parts of the
upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana.  Isolated storm
totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the
Houston/Galveston metropolitan area.  These rains are currently
producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large
portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.  DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.  Please see warnings and
products issued by your local National Weather Service office for
additional information on this life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts
of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern Louisiana into coastal
Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall associated with Harvey will spread
north by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches
spreading into portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley.

A preliminary report from one Texas rain gauge has broken the Texas
tropical cyclone rainfall record. Southeast of Houston, Mary's Creek
at Winding Road reported 49.32 inches as of 9 am CDT. This total is
higher than the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical
cyclone Amelia of 1978 at Medina, Texas.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds.  Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist
during the next day or so. Tropical storms conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 24 hours.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today from extreme
southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana, coastal
Mississippi and coastal Alabama.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila 



 
 ...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS EVENING...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 291436
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 77.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF JACKSONVILLE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM WSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Cape
Lookout, North Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 34.4 North, longitude 77.2 West.  The system is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and it is expected to
accelerate toward the northeast and east-northeast during the next
couple of days.  The disturbance is forecast to move near the coast
of North Carolina today and then move away from the coast over the
western Atlantic Ocean tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength today,
and the chances for the system to become a tropical cyclone continue
to decrease.  Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a
tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are
expected over portions of North Carolina today.  The disturbance is
forecast to strengthen at sea and become a hurricane-force
extratropical low over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday
evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches
along the northeast North Carolina and southeast Virginia coasts
into the Delmarva through Wednesday. The heavier rains may result in
some flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the North Carolina and Virginia coasts during the next day or so,
creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg 




 
 STORM INVEST 93L
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area near
the Cabo Verde Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days over the
eastern Atlantic.  The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the
next several days.  Heavy rain is possible over portions of the Cabo
Verde Islands through Wednesday. 
 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
 


 
 
 

Monday, August 28, 2017

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 1100 PM EDT AUG 28, 2017

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS..


ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 80.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 32.5 North, longitude 80.0 West.  The system is moving
toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A faster
northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days.  On
the forecast track, the system will move near or over the coast of
South Carolina tonight and across the North Carolina Outer Banks on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength
tonight or early Tuesday and the chances for the system to become a
tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing.  Regardless of whether or
not this system becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force
winds and heavy rains are expected over portions of the Carolinas
during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area tonight.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along northeastern South
Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches.  The heavier rains
may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia coasts during the
next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A brief tornado is possible tonight through midday
Tuesday along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN







 

HARVEY UPDATE 1100 AM EDT AUG 28,2017

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO WORSEN THE FLOOD SITUATION IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...
000
WTNT34 KNHC 290245
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO WORSEN THE
FLOOD SITUATION IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN
A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 95.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mesquite Bay to Intracoastal City

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to Morgan City

Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern
Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana.  Please see warnings
and other products issued by your local National Weather Service
office for additional information on this life-threatening
situation.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

Interests elsewhere along the middle and upper Texas coast and in
southern Louisiana should continue to monitor the progress of
Harvey.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 95.3 West. Harvey is
moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue overnight.  A turn toward the
northeast and a continued slow forward speed are expected Tuesday
and Tuesday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is
expected to be just offshore of the middle and upper coasts of Texas
through Tuesday night, then move inland over the northwestern Gulf
coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. The National Ocean Service automated station at
the Matagorda Bay entrance recently reported sustained winds of 39
mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches through Thursday over parts of the
upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana.  Isolated storm
totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the
Houston/Galveston metropolitan area.  These rains are currently
producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large
portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.  DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE.
DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.  Please see warnings and
products issued by your local National Weather Service office for
additional information on this life-threatening situation.

Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
5 to 15 inches farther east across south-central Louisiana.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southeast
Louisiana and coastal Mississippi and Alabama.

A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center can be found at:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds.  Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in rain bands well
to the east of the center of Harvey, and along the coast to the
southwest and west of the center.  Tropical storm conditions are
likely to persist within the warning area during the next couple
of days.

SURF:  Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas
and Louisiana.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible through Tuesday across
southern Louisiana and extreme southeast Texas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown