FLOOD WATCH SOUTH FLORIDA

FLZ067-068-071>074-168-172>174-191600-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.A.0001.180519T1000Z-180520T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Inland Broward-Metro Broward-
Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-Coastal Palm Beach-
Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
358 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of South Florida, including the 
following areas, Coastal Broward, Coastal Miami-Dade, Coastal 
Palm Beach, Far South Miami-Dade, Inland Broward, Inland 
Miami- Dade, Inland Palm Beach, Metro Broward, Metro 
Miami-Dade, and Metro Palm Beach. 

* Through this evening

* Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms with periods of 
heavy rain area expected today. This may lead to flooding. 
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated 
areas likely to receive much higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 19, 2018...

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 18, 2018...0952 AM EDT

1.  Still monitoring the Northwest Caribbean for development into next week.

2.  Early to see, but there is a strong area of convection (Thunderstorms) that just moved off the African coast.  More than likely it will weaken as it tracks further to the west.  Just interesting to see as we get closer to the season how we start seeing this activity and so early.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 17, 2018...0451 PM EDT

Website updated!

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

THIS MORNING MODEL RUN ON THE POSSIBLE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM

There are a few more models that are picking up on possible development in the southern/northwest Caribbean by late next week into the Memorial Day weekend.  Just a heads up!

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 17, 2018... 1011 AM EDT

I am still monitoring the south and northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone development.  Before it was just the GFS model suggesting development but now I am seeing the ECMWF model as well.  I have also noticed cloudiness and storms developing east of the Nicaragua coast so this area bares watching during the last two weeks of May.
RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 16. 2018 1048 AM EDT

I am monitoring the Northwest Caribbean for early tropical development since the GFS model persistently continues to insist on the possibility of a tropical cyclone forming near the Honduras/ Nicaragua coast.  Most of the times these model run are bogus but when a model continues to insist on development I will monitor it closely.  RTW
 
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME ...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net/

GULF DISTURBANCE UPDATE MAY 16, 2018 0920 AM EDT

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, western Cuba and
a good portion of the Bahamas.  This system is forecast to
degenerate into a trough of low pressure, and tropical cyclone
formation is not anticipated. This is the last Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system, but additional information will be
included in products issued by your local weather office. Routine
Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Avila

TROPICAL WAVE WATCH UPDATE 0359 PM EDT MAY 15, 2018

1. A tropical wave - the first of the season - has been included on
the Surface Analysis near 31W from about 02N to 11N. There is no
discernible surface signature to the wave, though it is well
defined on the SUNY-Albany Trough Diagnostics through cyclonic
turning of the 700 mb winds as well as a maximum in total
precipitable water just east of wave axis. No significant deep
convection is associated with the wave...NHC

There are no signs of development at this time...RTW 

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

TROPICAL WAVE WATCH MAY 15, 2018

There are no waves to track across the Atlantic at this time.  I will post twice daily or as conditions warrant.

RTW
Website below:
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

GULF DISTURBANCE DISORGANIZED RAINS MOVING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida, southeastern
Georgia and a good portion of the Bahamas.  This system has not
become any better organized since yesterday and conditions are
becoming even less favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone
formation.  This system, however, will continue to produce locally
heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of
Florida and the southeastern United States during the next few days
while the low moves generally northward. For more information on
this system, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 9 AM EDT on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila 

DISTURBANCE INVESTIGATION UPDATE 0400 PM EDT MAY 14, 2018

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
345 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A deep-layer non-tropical area of low pressure located over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness,
showers, and thunderstorms across much of Florida and southeastern
Georgia.  Although this system could still acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days, the low has
not shown signs of increased organization during the past 24 hours.
Regardless of subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system
will produce locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding
across portions of Florida and the southeastern United States during
the next few days.  For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office.  The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT
on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg 

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

STORM INVESTIGATION MONDAY 14, 2018...1011 AM EDT

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
935 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across much of the Florida Peninsula
is associated with a broad surface low pressure area interacting
with an upper-level low.  This system could acquire some subtropical
or tropical characteristics while it moves slowly northward across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.  Regardless of
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance
rainfall across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast
during the next few days.  For more information on this system,
please see products issued by your local weather office.  The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 4
PM EDT today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch 

STORM INVESTIGATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the
Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated
with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level
low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall
across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during
the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Brennan