Wednesday, July 11, 2018

H. CHRIS AND REMNANT OF BERYL (INVEST 95L) JULY 11, 2018...1100 AM EDT

CHRIS
544 
WTNT33 KNHC 111458
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Chris Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018

...CHRIS CONTINUES ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.4N 67.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of
Hurricane Chris.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located
near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 67.8 West.  Chris is moving
toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h).  The hurricane is
forecast to remain on this general heading with an increase in
forward speed for the next several days. On the forecast track the
center of Chris will pass near southeastern Newfoundland on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected during the day today,
with some weakening forecast on Thursday. Chris will likely
also become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to affect
portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states
during the next few days.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.

RAINFALL: Chris is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 millimeters) over Newfoundland, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches (150 millimeters).
These rains may cause flash flooding.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/





 
 BERYL (INVEST 95L)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 11 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Chris, located more than 300 miles east of the North Carolina Outer
Banks.

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms associated
with the remnants of Beryl is located over much of the Bahamas and
extends northwestward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles. Little or no development is expected today, but conditions
could become a little more favorable later in the week while the
disturbance moves slowly northward over the western Atlantic. The
previously scheduled Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight to
investigate the disturbance this afternoon has been canceled.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


Local Radar

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

H. CHRIS AND BERYL'S REMNANT (INVEST 95L) JULY 10, 2018...0521 PM EDT

CHRIS
900 
WTNT33 KNHC 102053
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Chris Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

...CHRIS FINALLY BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.7N 72.4W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina and in Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of Hurricane Chris.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Chris was located
near latitude 33.7 North, longitude 72.4 West. Chris is moving
toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A continued
northeastward motion accompanied by a steady increase in forward
speed is expected through Thursday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140
km/h) with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast
tonight and Wednesday. Chris is forecast to begin weakening by
Thursday, and become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday
night or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Hurricane Chris are expected to increase
and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the
mid-Atlantic states during the next few days.  These swells could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 





BERYL REMNANTS (STORM INVEST 95L)
224 
ABNT20 KNHC 101743
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the
North Carolina Outer Banks.

The remnants of Beryl are producing gusty winds and areas of heavy
rain over much of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and adjacent
Atlantic waters.  This system is expected to move west-northwestward
across the rest of Hispaniola today and over the southeastern
Bahamas this evening.  Little development is expected during the
next day or so due to land interaction and unfavorable upper-level
winds.  However, the disturbance is expected to turn northward over
the western Atlantic on Wednesday where upper-level winds could
become a little more conducive for the regeneration of a tropical
cyclone later this week.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday
afternoon, if necessary.  Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of Hispaniola and
the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move through those areas.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Stewart 
 




 
 



CHRIS AND BERYL (INVEST 95L) REMNANTS UPDATE 1225 PM EDT...JULY 10 2018


CHRIS
512 
WTNT33 KNHC 101452
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

...CHRIS FINALLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 73.1W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina and in Atlantic Canada
should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was
located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 73.1 West. Chris is
moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is
expected to begin tonight and continue into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Chris is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later
today when it moves over warmer waters, and some additional
strengthening is expected through Wednesday night. Chris is forecast
to become a strong post-tropical cyclone by Thursday night or early
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect
portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states
during the next few days.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/






BERYL (STORM INVESTIGATION 95L)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast
of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

1. The remnants of Beryl are producing gusty winds and areas of heavy
rain over portions of central and eastern Hispaniola, and the
adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters.  This system is expected to
move west-northwestward across the rest of Hispaniola today and over
the southeastern Bahamas this evening.  Little development is
expected during the next day or so due to land interaction and
unfavorable upper-level winds.  The disturbance is forecast to turn
northward over the western Atlantic on Wednesday where upper-level
winds could become a little more conducive for the regeneration of a
tropical cyclone later this week.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of
Hispaniola and the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move through
those areas.  Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 ralphstropicalweather.com
I will continue to monitor the progress of Beryl's remnants
since some of the models seem to show loop back which
could be due to blocking and weak steering environment..RTW



 
 


Monday, July 9, 2018

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS AND BERYL REMNANTS (INVEST 95L) JULY 9, 2018...1119 PM EDT

CHRIS
000
WTNT33 KNHC 100258
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chris Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018
1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018

...CHRIS REMAINS STATIONARY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 74.3W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the coast of North Carolina and in the Canadian
Maritimes should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chris was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 74.3 West. Chris has
remained nearly stationary the past several hours, and little motion
is expected tonight.  A northeastward motion should begin on
Tuesday, and Chris is forecast to accelerate northeastward on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected tonight.  However, Chris is
expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday, with additional
strengthening expected Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Chris are expected to increase and affect
portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states
during the next few days.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 
RTW FORECAST TRACK MAP
(DATA COURTESY OF NHC)




BERYL'S REMNANTS (STORM INVEST 95L)
000
ABNT20 KNHC 092326
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jul 9 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Chris, located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast
of the North Carolina Outer Banks.

The remnants of Beryl are producing strong gusty winds and areas of
heavy rain over the north-central Caribbean Sea, Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands.  This system is expected to move west-
northwestward across Hispaniola overnight and Tuesday with little
development expected during that time due to land interaction and
unfavorable upper-level winds.  A turn to the northwest and then
north is expected to begin by Tuesday night taking the system
across the Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters.  Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for regeneration of
a tropical cyclone Wednesday night and Thursday when the system is
forecast to be near or north of the Bahamas.  Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over
portions of Hispaniola and the Bahamas as the remnants of Beryl move
through those areas. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/