TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 17, 2018...1111AM EDT

..TROPICAL WAVES...

1. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 15N 
southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is 
from 04N to 16N between Africa and 30W.

2. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W from 21N southward. It
is moving through the area of the islands of the eastern 
Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 
08N to 21N between 50W and 63W. 

3. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W from 20N and SE Cuba 
southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also is in the 
area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from the
Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W westward...

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center https://www.nhc.noaa.gov

There is nothing developing in the tropics at this time.  All remains quiet...RTW

ATLANTIC SATELLITE REVIEW OCT 16, 2018...1235 PM EDT

An Area of showers and storms associated with a tropical wave is moving through an area of strong southwesterly upper level wind shear. 

The tropics are relatively quiet let's hope it stays this way the rest of Oct and Nov.
RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 16, 2018...0944 PM EDT

Storm investigation 94L continues it's westward track along the Northwest Hondrian coast.

This system remains a rain and flood threat for Central America. 

This system will move inland without any development in the Caribbean.  Then as it merges off the southwest coast of Central America and into the East Pacific where it may develop into a tropical cyclone as it tracks westward.

Else where the tropics remain quiet!

Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 15, 2018...0419 PM EDT

Invest 94L is not organized.  The low is off shore the northern
Nicaragua and the thunderstorms are displace to the southeast of the center.  The proximity to land will prevent tropical cyclone formation.  NHC is still giving this system a 40% chance within 48 hrs, and within five days.

Heavy rains will produce mudslides and flash floods over this region as it tracks westward over Honduras...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 15, 2018...1104 AM EDT

A broad low pressure in the South Caribbean is producing showers and storms east of northeast Nicaragua.

This low is forecast to track west over the northern coast of Nicaragua and Honduras and could become a depression before moving onshore.  NHC is giving this system a 40% chance within 48 hrs and a 40% chance with 5-days.

This system is a flash flooding potential for Nicaragua and Honduras.

Else where there are a few areas of showers and storms in the Atlantic but upper level winds are unfavorable for development.
RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 14, 2018...1052 PM EDT

NHC is monitoring the south Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation.  The system has a 20% chance within 48 hrs and 20% within 5-days.

Else the the tropics are quiet...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 14, 2018...O537 AM EDT

I am monitoring a tropical over the Central Atlantic that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

This area has a slight chance for development as it tracks westward between 10-15 mph.

As this system approaches the Lesser Antilles upper level conditions becomes unfavorable and this system dissapates.

Note none of the models suggest significant development at this time.

NHC is giving this wave a LOW 10% chance for development within 48 hrs and within 5 days.
Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

TROPICAL UPDATE OCT 13, 2018...0258 PM EDT

LESLIE ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG TO PORTUGAL COAST AS A HURRICANE. 

ELSE WHERE IN THE TROPICS AN AREA OF HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS OVER THE EAST CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODS OVER PUERTO RICO.  THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 40°-30° WEST THAT I WILL MONITOR AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 13, 2018...1255 AM EDT

Hurricane Leslie headed for Portugal and Western Spain. 

Elsewhere where tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 12, 2018...1032 AM EDT

1. Castastophic Michael exiting over the west Atlantic as a strong Post Tropical Cyclone and should remain a force to recon with as it cross the Atlantic.

After all is said and done I think damage accessment will yield that Michael was a lower cat 5 or a tad higher.  There are a lot of similarities in damage comparison from what I seen to a weaker version of an Andrew Storm.

Ships should steer away from the path of this potent Gale center once called Michael.

2. Leslie a possible threat to the Canary Islands.

3.  Nadine a weakening storm should disipate over the Central Atlantic.

4.  As for the system NHC is watching in the South Caribbean I would not be to concern about it.  Chance for formation is low and it is forecast to move over Central America not allowing for development.

Else where in the tropics, all remains quiet...RTW