Friday, November 2, 2018

radar detecting water spout off shore Florida west coast

Water spouts detected off shore central Florida west coast.  Remember if any of these water spouts make it on shore it becomes a tornado.  There was four detected earlier.



TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 2, 2018...1028 AM EDT


Tropical Wave:
1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 28 degrees west is not showing g signs of organization.

2.  A westward moving tropical wave near 58 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Sunday...RTW

Please note tropical waves added to this surface map were added by myself.  I am borrowing their map until I can come e up with another map of my own.
Here is a link to there site:
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticAnalysis.aspx


REMINDER TO SET YOU CLOCK BACK AN HOUR WEEKEND


Thursday, November 1, 2018

BROKEN LINE OF STORMS STILL TRACKING EAST


Latest radar still showing strong but broken line of storms over the northeast Gulf, Panhandle and Alabama tracking east.  This line is prompting Marine warnings that could become severe thunderstorm warnings as it moves on shore.  Just a heads up!  RTW


COOLER, WETTER AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTHEAST THIS WINTER

This is a precursor of what to expect this winter with EL Nino conditions.

A cold Front dropping a frontal boundary over the warm Gulf waters clashing with cold air from the north.

This will produce pre-front squall lines ahead of frontal boundary and enhance the severe storm chance with the possibility of tornadoes.

So unlike this past winter where we had La Nina conditions and dry weather and warmer winter this will be the opposite, wetter with severe weather, and colder temps...RTW

TROPICAL OUTLOOK NOV 1, 2018...1031 AM EDT


Tropical Waves:

1.  A westward moving tropical wave near 23 degrees west is not showing signs of organization.

2.  Another westward moving tropical wave near 52 degrees west is also not showing signs of organization.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Saturday.



SEVERE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA AND FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING


Line of strong the severe storms tracking east over Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this morning.  Stay alert


Wednesday, October 31, 2018

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR GUKF COAST STATES OCT 31, 2018


SPC AC 311956

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0256 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

   Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
   TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The greatest risk for severe thunderstorms, capable of producing
   damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes, exists from southeast Texas to
   the lower Mississippi Valley through tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   Have removed severe probabilities from portions of the Big Country
   into north Texas, where the south/southeastward progression of a
   cold front and an expansive trailing precipitation shield are likely
   minimizing any severe threat. Additionally, Marginal probabilities
   have been extended westward towards El Paso, where forcing for
   ascent with the primary shortwave impulse may continue to support a
   localized hail/wind threat.

   Otherwise, a greater tornado/damaging wind potential is still
   expected to materialize late this evening into tonight from
   southeast Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley, and no changes have
   been made to the ongoing probabilities here. For more information on
   this threat, see the previous discussion below.

   ..Picca.. 10/31/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018/

   ...TX today to LA/MS overnight...
   A midlevel shortwave trough now near El Paso will continue eastward
   across TX through tonight.  Weak cyclogenesis is expected by this
   evening and continuing through tonight, along a pre-existing front
   from central TX to the Mid South.  A moist low-level air mass is
   already present south of the front, with low 70s boundary-layer
   dewpoints spreading across the northwest Gulf coast.  Gradual mass
   response to the cyclogenesis will result in strengthening low-level
   flow/shear, especially tonight across LA/MS.

   Ongoing convection in TX has largely remained elevated atop the
   frontal surface, but may gradually transition to surface-based
   storms along the front later this afternoon.  Isolated strong-severe
   storms will also be possible this afternoon/evening into southwest
   TX, along the west edge of the richer low-level moisture and in the
   zone of stronger low-midlevel ascent preceding the shortwave trough.
   Farther east, the ongoing warm sector convection across the upper TX
   coast should persist through the afternoon and spread slowly
   eastward/northeastward.  Additional warm sector storm development is
   also expected tonight along the moist axis into southern LA.

   Wind profiles are only marginally favorable for organized/supercell
   storms at present across TX, with slow strengthening of vertical
   shear expected later this afternoon through tonight farther east
   toward the lower MS Valley.  A few supercells could evolve from the
   ongoing upper TX coast convection, as well as embedded
   supercells/bowing segments along the front from central into east
   TX.  This frontal convection will likely evolve into a line that
   will move eastward overnight, with an accompanying threat for
   damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations.
   The more substantial supercell/tornado threat is expected overnight
   into parts of LA (and possibly MS) within the moist sector, and
   where low-level shear becomes the strongest.  A strong tornado or
   two will be possible, especially with any pre-frontal supercell
   clusters, where effective SRH increases to greater than 400 m2/s2 in
   a moist environment with sufficient surface-based buoyancy.



Tornado Outlook 
 Strong Wind Outlook
 Hail Outlook
 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook


TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 31, 2018...0940 AM EDT


Tropical Waves:
1.  A westward moving tropical wave located near 46 degrees and 45 degrees west has some moisture associated with it, however, upper level shear is disrupting  the shower and storm development at this time.

2. Another westward moving tropical wave near 60 degrees and 58 west is still not showing any signs of organization.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Friday...RTW




Tuesday, October 30, 2018

OSCAR UPDATE OCT 30, 2018... 1107 AM EDT

000
WTNT31 KNHC 301435
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018

...OSCAR TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 57.7W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 57.7 West.  Oscar is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A
north-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in
forward speed is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days,
but Oscar is expected to become a powerful extratropical low over
the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through
Wednesday.  Please consult products from your local weather office,
as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg











TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 30, 2018... 1039 AM EDT


Tropical Waves:
1.  A tropical wave near 40 degrees west has not changed much since yesterday.

2.  A tropical wave near 57 degrees west is not showing signs of development.

Other than Hurricane Oscar, the tropics remain quiet...RTW



Monday, October 29, 2018

OSCAR UPDATE OCT 29, 2018...EDT


Hurricane Oscar:


000
WTNT31 KNHC 291434
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
1100 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018

...OSCAR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...
...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 58.4W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 58.4 West.  Oscar is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a motion toward the north tonight.  On Tuesday, Oscar is
forecast to begin moving toward the north-northeast with an increase
in forward speed.  The hurricane is then expected to accelerate
quickly toward the northeast through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast through
Tuesday, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 29, 2018...1123 AM EDT


Tropical waves:
1.  A westward moving tropical between 35 and 30 degrees west is producing strong showers and storms south of the ITCZ or Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone.  I will monitor it closely however, upper level winds ahead of this wave are hostile at this time.

2.  Another westward wave is between 54 and 50 degrees west and this wave is not showing any signs of organization...RTW


Sunday, October 28, 2018

TROPICAL OUTLOOK OCT 28, 2018...

Tropical Waves:

1. This low latitude wave is not showing signs of organization. at this time

2. This wave is also not showing signs of organization at this time.

tropical cyclone formation is not expected through Wednesday...RTW





OSCAR UPDATE 0547 PM EDT...0547 PM EDT

Hurricane Oscar:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 282056
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018

...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 55.5W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 55.5 West.  Oscar is moving
toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A continued westward motion
is expected overnight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
by early Monday, with a northwestward motion forecast on Monday
afternoon. By Tuesday, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the
north or north-northeast with an increase in forward speed.  The
hurricane is then expected to accelerate quickly toward the
northeast through the middle of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart 
 
 Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)


 Tropical Tidbits
 

Saturday, October 27, 2018

OSCAR UPDATE OCT 27, 2018...0703 PM EDT



000
WTNT31 KNHC 272032
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018
500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018

...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 50.7W
ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 990 MI...1595 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was
located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 50.7 West. The storm is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest is anticipated overnight, followed by a turn back
toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward
the north and then the northeast by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional
strengthening is expected, and Oscar could become a hurricane after
transitioning to a tropical storm later this weekend or early next
week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky 
 
Courtesy of Ralph's Tropical Weather(RTW)