SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ABD TORNADO WARNING STILL IN EFFECT

STAY ALERT FLORIDA MORE RADAR DETECTED TORNADO

Central Florida stay alert!

RADAR DETECTED TORNADO NORTH OF LAUREL FLORIDA WEST COAST

FLORIDA SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

The atmosphere is constately changing.  Severe weather Outlook graphics showing  Central Florida as 'Enhanced' chance for severe storm development now. 

This is more than likely due, because all that rain and storms have been training over this area since yesterday.

This area yesterday was under a 'Slight' chance for severe storm development.

I have notice on this morning satellite that the colder cloud top have warned over night.  This may be due to lack of heating from the day. 

Humidity levels are now rising as the sun heats the surface and we could see cooling off the clouds again as they tower upward and this means possibility of damaging winds, severe storms and isolated water spouts and tornado...

Stay alert today Central Florida and Southern Florida this evening in case severe weather Increases... RTW

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/

LISTEN UP FLORIDA KEYS MESSAGE FROM NWS MIAMI

FLZ076>078-201100-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Including the cities of Key Largo, Marathon, and Key West
824 PM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE KEYS THURSDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY NIGHT...

A strong cold front is expected to blast through the Florida Keys
and adjacent coastal waters late Thursday or Thursday night. This
front is expected to bring multiple weather hazards to the Keys 
from Thursday morning through Friday evening, including strong to 
severe thunderstorms, strong winds on land with gales likely on 
the coastal waters, and possible coastal flooding on the Gulf and 
Bayside.

The main weather event is expected to occur from Thursday morning
through Friday night. The potential for strong to severe 
thunderstorms ahead of the cold front will be highest from 
Thursday into Thursday night. These thunderstorms may organize 
into a squall line which could move through the Keys during the 
late afternoon or evening hours. The primary hazards with any 
thunderstorms will be strong, gusty and shifting winds along with 
lightning strikes. Some of the thunderstorms on Thursday or 
Thursday night could become severe with damaging winds and large 
hail. Isolated waterspouts will also be possible, and there is a 
slight risk for tornadoes as well. The Storm Prediction Center 
continues to include all of South Florida and the Keys within a 
severe thunderstorm risk area for Thursday into Thursday night.

On land, gusty south to southwest winds will increase to 20 to 30
mph on Thursday. Strong sustained west winds around 30 mph with 
gusts near 40 mph are expected on Friday, with winds possibly 
reaching these speeds beginning Thursday night. This will prompt a
Wind Advisory.

These persistent and strong westerly winds will cause Coastal 
Flooding impacts on the Gulf and Bay side communities along the 
length of the Florida Keys. The maximum water levels will likely 
occur along the shores of Blackwater and Buttonwood Sounds, 
around the time of high tide late Friday afternoon. In these 
areas total water levels may reach 3 to 4.5 feet above mean sea 
level Friday into Friday night. Coastal flood warnings and
advisories may be required.

Mariners should continue to prepare for a high impact weather 
event for Thursday through Friday night, and time is running 
short. Small Craft Advisories will certainly be needed during this
event beginning Thursday as strong southerly breezes develop. 
Winds will become westerly and increase to near gale behind the 
front Thursday night, lasting into Friday night. There is an 
increasing likelihood that Gale Warnings will be needed for much 
or all of the Keys coastal waters. A Gale Watch is now in effect 
for all Keys coastal waters. Very large seas are also expected 
with this event, peaking on Friday at 10 to 17 feet across the 
Straits of Florida and deep waters of the southeastern Gulf of 
Mexico, 5 to 8 feet in Hawk Channel inside the reef, and 4 to 8 
feet across the Gulf waters inside five fathoms.

Listen to NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio for the latest weather
information, including possible warnings. In addition, please 
remember to turn on your radio's severe weather tone activation 
feature. Also visit your Florida Keys National Weather Service on
the web at www.weather.gov/keywest.

FLORIDA SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE

Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a portion of Florida "Enhanced" chance for severe weather along the east coast (see map).  The other portion of Florida from Central Florida including south to the Florida straits is still under a "slight" chance.

Looks like the first batch of rain and storms could arrive over night and and the second half Thursday.  Stay alert!

THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE STORMS OVER FLORIDA THURSDAY

There is still a chance for the possibility of strong to severe storms with damaging winds, heavy rains and isolated tornadoes on Thursday evening.

A trough moving across the Gulf and a bit of Caribbean moisture is helping to energize an area of showers and storms over the southeast Gulf.  This trough will sweep this disturbance across Florida with the potential for heavy rains, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

This will more than likely occur late Thursday and over night so if the severe weather materializes you need to have your NOAA weather radio set to alert or have your cell phone near by so alerts will be heared when issued via cell phone network emergency alert system...RTW

STRONG TROUGH COULD PRODUCE SEVERE STORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA

Strong trough will be dipping south across the southeast by Thursday and it is forecast to drag a pre-front squall line across Central and Southern Florida. 

This system could produce enough upper level lift for the formation of mesocyclone type thunderstorms, and they can be severe in nature. 

With these type of storms you can't rule out isolated water spouts and tornado as the water spouts move onshore within the squall line by Thursday.

I will continue to monitor this system in the coming days...RTW

PRE-FRONT TROUGH MOVING ON SHORE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA

Radar Review:

Pre-front trough moving in over Florida today could produce strong to maybe severe thunderstorms.  So far I don't see any signs of water spouts off shore that could turn into a tornado on shore.  RTW

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY

Thunderstorm Outlook

Another storm system will drag a cold front across the southeast enhancing a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across a portion of northern and Central Florida on Friday and a possibly on Saturday.  RTW

STORM OUTLOOK OVER NIGHT AND LATER TODAY

Severe Weather Outlook for tonight and later today!

SNOW STORM HEADED FOR THE CAROLINAS

Storm system headed east will bring an abundance of snow to the Carolinas.  Here is the latest radar

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK DEC. 3, 2018

Severe Weather Outlook:

There is a chance of an isolated tornado over northern Florida today as a front moves southeast.

DESTRUCTIVE 2018 HURRICANE SEASON COMES TO AN END TODAY

Tropical Outlook:
The tropical Atlantic, Carbbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico remains quiet!

The end of the 2018 hurricane Season comes to a close today Nov 30, 2018, and predictions
we're slightly off.

It was first thought to be slightly below average season, but as August and September the peak of hurricane season came around they started popping like popcorn across the Atlantic.  This made it an average to slightly above average season but not by much.

However, as we say, "all it takes is one" or in this case two to turn you life upside down,  and those were Florence and Michael our only two Major hurricanes this season. 

Between both hurricanes their we're 154 death and an approximate total of destruction cost of $33.27 billion in 2018 US Dollars.

I think the death total was kind of high for living in this generation of technology/ weather forecasting tools and awareness of the danger storm surge and rainfall in a hurricane can cause.  I believe this is due to ignorance, and those that think experts are hyping the warnings. 

We have seen this happen where they say it's going to be bad storm and it ends up being nothing like they said it was going to be, so people become complacent and because it was not bad they think I survive this storm I can survive others.  That to me is a bad assumption on those who think that way!

We can't really blame the experts  because every hurricane does not behave the same as the other, and this is due to uncertain, and complex atmospheric conditions that are constantly changing.

Yes forecast are becoming better and more accurate every year but there are still those variables in the weather that I call monkey wrenches that can through off a forecast. 

Remember no matter how accurate forecast becomes throughout the years it will never be a perfect science. 

So this is why you must not become complacent and ignore evacuation and preparation advice given by those that are there to warn you from impending landfall threat.

Always enter every hurricane season prepared and with a plan of action, and always heed the advice, and leave if told to evcuate. 

Lets keep those death toll numbers down and not become a statistic.  Never under estimate the power of one of these storms big or small.

Ralph's Tropical Weather (RTW)

Seasonal statistics
Total depressions	16
Total storms	15
Hurricanes	8
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+)	2
Total fatalities	154 total
Total damage	> $33.27 billion (2018 USD)

TROPICAL UPDATE NOV 29, 2018...0238 PM EST

Tropical Outlook:

The tropics remain quiet as we near the end of the 2018 Hurricane Season tomorrow Nov 30.