Tuesday, October 31, 2017
ITS THAT TIME AGAIN TO SET CLOCK BACK AND HOUR THIS SUNDAY NOVEMBER 5
Its that time to remind you to set your clock back an hour this Sunday Nov 5, 2017!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 31, 2017 1115 AM EDT
000 ABNT20 KNHC 311107 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A weak, non-tropical area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly well to the northeast and southeast of the low. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit any subtropical or tropical cyclone development during the next couple of days while the system meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
Monday, October 30, 2017
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OCT 30, 2017 1201 PM EDT
NHC IS MONITORING A DISTURBANCE NEAR 55-45° WEST WHICH HAS A LOW CHANCE 30% WITHIN 48HRS AND A MED CHANCE 40% WITHIN 5-DAYS. NO THREAT TO LAND AT THIS TIME.
COOL START TO THE WEEK!
Next three days:
Today Oct 30, 2017
Day: Sunny. Highs around 71°F. North northwest wind to 11
MPH.
Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 59°F.
North wind to 6 MPH.
Tuesday Oct 31
Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 78°F. North wind to 9 MPH.
Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 66°F. Northeast wind to 8 MPH.
Wednesday Nov 1
Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 82°F. North northwest wind
to 10 MPH.
Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 69°F. East northeast wind to 7 MPH, gusting to 13 MPH.
Sunday, October 29, 2017
PHILIPPE 11 AM EDT UPDATE OCT 29, 2017
000 WTNT33 KNHC 291435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 ...PHILIPPE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 77.5W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 77.5 West. Philippe is moving toward the east-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected to begin later this afternoon and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will continue to move quickly away from the Florida east coast and the northwestern Bahamas and emerge over the open western Atlantic later this afternoon, remaining well away from the United States and Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight, and be absorbed by a large extratropical low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. Recent ship observations continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 50 mph (65 to 83 km/h) are occurring across the waters in and near the northwestern Bahamas. In addition, sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and gusts to 51 mph (81 km/h) have been occurring at Settlement Point on the western end of Grand Bahama Island during the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Cuba. This rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba. The heavy rainfall threat for the Bahamas has diminished WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue across portions of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas this morning, but end by early afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
06z MODEL GUIDANCE RUN, ENSEMBLE AND INTENSITY MODEL 0CT 29, 2017 0200 AM EDT
LATEST MODEL RUN FOR THIS MORNING:
PHILIPPE INTERMIDIATE ADVISORY 0200 AM EDT OCT 29, 2017
000 WTNT33 KNHC 290541 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 ...PHILIPPE MOVING ERRATICALLY NEAR KEY WEST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 82.0W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Craig Key to Golden Beach * Central Bahamas For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. Philippe has been moving erratically eastward near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula this morning, and across the northwestern Bahamas later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches are expected through today. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of central Cuba, which may lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in the higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions of the warning area in Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area later this morning across the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the Florida Keys and southeast Florida over the next several hours, and in the central Bahamas later this morning. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND PHILIPPE FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
Saturday, October 28, 2017
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE OCT 28, 2017 1100 PM EDT
000 WTNT33 KNHC 290240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...CENTER OF POORLY ORGANIZED PHILIPPE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER FROM CENTRAL CUBA ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 82.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Craig Key to Golden Beach * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12-18 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 82.1 West. Philippe is moving toward the north-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected Sunday through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula overnight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches are expected through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of western and central Cuba, which may lead to life- threatening flash floods and mudslides in the higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring in the warning area across Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area later tonight across the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the upper Florida Keys and southeast Florida overnight, and in the central Bahamas by Sunday morning. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
So far all the stronger winds are east of the center and most of the stronger storms are over Central Cuba. So far as it looks now if it stays on its present track these stronger storms to the southeast of center will remain away for South Florida. Dry air moving in behind the storm as the front approaches the west coast of Florida. Off and on rains can occur over night and at time maybe heavy some cells could be strong to maybe severe...RTW
18z MODEL RUN OCT 28, 2017 0411 PM EDT
This system main concern, is heavy rains and flash flooding, and the possibility of isolated tornado's with some of the severe cells.
Miami-Dade is catching a break from the first batch of rains that is now moved north of the area, but as the low tracks close to us then the rains to our south will increase over the area this evening.
Upper Keys and Southeast Florida is presently still under a tropical storm watch. keep your NOAA weather radio on alert and monitor radio and local media for updates...RTW
12z TRACK POSITION AND MODEL RUN OCT 28, 2017 0920 AM EDT
HERE IS THE LATEST TRACK POSITION AND MODEL RUN:
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