Tuesday, May 9, 2017

INVEST 90E UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IN THE EAST PACIFIC

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON DEVELOPS...NHC

4:00 PM CDT Tue May 9
Location: 9.3°N 91.3°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph





UPDATED FORECAST FOR MIAMI AND VICINITY



Tonight May 9, 2017
Mostly clear:  Lows around 72°F.  East wind to 11 MPH.

Wednesday May 10
Mostly sunny during the day:  Highs around 84°F.  North northwest wind to 13 MPH.

Clear during the night:  Lows around 72°F.  East southeast wind to 10 MPH.

Thursday May 11
Sunny during the day: Highs around 88°F.  West wind to 14 MPH.

Mostly clear during the night:  Lows around 75°F. South southeast wind 6 to 11 MPH.

Friday May 12
Mostly sunny during the day:  Highs around 88°F.  West southwest wind 6 to 13 MPH.

Mostly clear during the night:  Lows around 77°F.  South wind 7 to 14 MPH.

Saturday May 13
Partly cloudy with scattered showers during the day:  Highs around 88°F.  South southwest wind 9 to 14 MPH.  Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with scattered showers during the night:  Lows around 75°F.  Southwest wind 6 to 14 MPH. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday May 14
Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the day:  Highs around 88°F.  West northwest wind to 10 MPH.  Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms during the night:  Lows around 77°F.  South wind to 10 MPH.  Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday May 15
Partly cloudy with isolated showers day:  Highs around 88°F.  Northwest wind to 9 MPH, gusting to 14 MPH.  Chance of rain 20 percent.

Partly cloudy with isolated showers during the night:  Lows around 75°F.  Southeast wind to 11 MPH.  Chance of precipitation 30 percent.






INVEST 90E BEING STEERED WESTWARD BY GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE

Latest model run shows more models track west-northwest to northwest and this may be due to the high pressure system over northern Florida that encompasses the Gulf of Mexico and a portion of the East Pacific. The westerly steering currents from this high is helping to steer this system westward at this time.

As for the intensity models they are still suggesting a hurricane cat 2 maybe a 3. System still looks good on satellite and this system could become Adrian at anytime.
http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

 


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.

   SEL9

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 199
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM MDT Tue May 9 2017

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southeast Colorado
     Northern and central New Mexico

   * Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1110 AM until
     600 PM MDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
       to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify over the
   mountains of northern NM and southern CO, and eventually spread
   northeastward across the watch area.  Large hail is the primary
   threat.  However, a few supercells capable of a tornado or two may
   also occur this afternoon.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
   statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles south southeast
   of Corona NM to 25 miles east northeast of Pueblo CO. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
   24030.

   ...Hart 
 
 

TOMORROW'S THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK

2
Tomorrow's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook.


TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN IN THE MAKING!

SPECIAL UPDATE INVEST 90E CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND DURING THE NEXT ADVISORY WE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY SEE TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE ADRIAN!
IT IS STILL UNKNOWN IF ADRIAN WILL TRACKING OVER CENTRAL AMERICAN AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SO I WILL CONTINUE MONITOR IT.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
 



INVEST 90E AN EARLY TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EAST PACIFIC

INVEST 90E IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE 2017 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON AND IT DOES NOT START UNTIL MAY 15.

SYSTEM IS LOOKING BETTER ON SATELLITE AND SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CAT 3 MAJOR STORM IN THE COMING DAYS.  SOME OF THE MODELS TURN THIS SYSTEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND MAY BE TRAVERSING OVER INTO THE CARIBBEAN.  THAT IS YET TO BE SEEN, SO FAR STEERING CURRENTS DON'T LOOK ALL THAT STRONG IN THIS AREA SO WE MAY HAVE A MEANDERING STORM SYSTEM.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net