ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 51 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 ...JOSE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 71.6W ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Fenwick Island to Sandy Hook * Delaware Bay South * East Rockaway Inlet to Plymouth * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 71.6 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday night. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Monday, and pass well east of the Delmarva peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. Reports from a NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, and Jose is forecast to remain a hurricane through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The lastest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL...Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through Wednesday. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches along the Mid Atlantic coast, and from southeast New York to coastal Maine. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
...MARIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
000 WTNT35 KNHC 180248 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...MARIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 58.4W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ESE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe * Dominica * St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Martinique A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua and Barbuda * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Lucia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Hurricane and Tropical storm Warnings may be issued for portion of the Leeward and Virgin Islands on Monday, and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for Puerto Rico and the nearby islands Monday morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 58.4 West. Maria is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move across the Leeward Islands late Monday and Monday night and then over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to become a major hurricane as it moves through the Leeward Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are first expected within portions of the Leeward Islands by late Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning during the day on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area later tonight through Monday night. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 5 to 7 feet above normal tide levels near where the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, through Wednesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over the remaining northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla, as well as the Windward Islands and Barbados. Rainfall on all of these islands could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
...LEE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...
000 WTNT34 KNHC 180246 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...LEE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 38.5W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 38.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Lee is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
