Sunday, September 24, 2017

MARIA 11PM EDT UPDATE 9/24/17

...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER... 

000
WTNT35 KNHC 250232
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...MARIA A LITTLE WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 73.0W
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City northward to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck

Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts
should monitor the progress of Maria.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 73.0 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday.  On the
forecast track, the core of Maria will move well east of the
southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional slow weakening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Maria is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up
to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 950 mb (28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer
Banks...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and Monday.  Swells
also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the
northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




 

RTW WEBPAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED 0139 PM EDT

I been neglecting full updates to the web page due to hurricane IRMA and MARIA.  I was focusing  my attention to updating the public and FB followers here are home.  So I started a regular update of website once again.  I apologize for the inconvenience this may have brought you but dealing with regular updates and preparations to protect life and property for landfall in Florida kept me real busy.

RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

MARIA 11 AM EDT UPDATE 9/24/17

...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...MARIA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 72.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast later today.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 72.9 West.  Maria is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday night.  On
the forecast track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of
the southeast coast of the United States during the day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next
24 hours, but gradual weakening is expected by Monday night or
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast later today.  Swells also
continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown 
 



 

GFS AND CMC MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT IN OCTOBER

Still far out in the future but it but we are now going into a new peak in October and the possibility  of more storm development.  Don't drop your guard just yet!




CHANGES TO TRACKING MAP FOR BETTER VISUALS

I thought you might like some changes I made to the tracking map and the forecast track storm symbols which you will see tomorrow when I post. I was able to make the storm symbols match the color of the category. I think that will make it easier to see what category the storm will be as it gets closer to a location of interest. I hope you all like it plus I made the tropical depression wind field wind a shade darker green instead of that light mint color green, it makes it easier on the eyes to see the storm wind fields radius. I also fixed the country outline to show through wind field as the storm moves over the land area. I noticed that Florida shows the outline of the state zoom in so I fixed it so you can see land outline over wind field colors as I zoom out the map. I played with some of the layers and I like what I see. Hope you all like some of the changes to the tracking map...RTW
 IRMA EXAMPLE 1
MARIA EXAMPLE 2
 IRMA AND MARIA WITHOUT WIND FIELD RADIUS EXAMPLE 3