Thursday, October 5, 2017
NATE 0500 PM EDT 10/05/17
000 WTNT31 KNHC 052045 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...CENTER OF NATE MOVING INTO EASTERN HONDURAS... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 84.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. A Hurricane Watch and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight or Friday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 84.3 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days with a significant increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move across eastern Honduras this evening and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center is then expected to move near or over the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands late Friday or Friday night, and move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and Nate could be near hurricane strength as the center approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations into Saturday: Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6 to 10 inches, max 20 inches Eastern El Salvador and northern Costa Rica: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches Northern Honduras/Nicaragua, eastern Yucatan/Belize and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches Central Honduras: 2 to 4 inches Cayman Islands and Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center of Nate makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
MIAMI AND VICINITY 7-DAY FORECAST
Today Oct 5, 2017
Day: Windy with rain showers likely. Highs around 83°F. Heat
index around 89°F. Windy, with an east southeast wind to 22 MPH, gusting to 29 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70
percent.
Night: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows around 80°F.
Heat index around 90°F. Southeast wind to 19 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Friday Oct 6
Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs
around 86°F. Heat index around 97°F. East southeast wind to 17 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows
around 81°F. Heat index around 91°F. East wind to 15 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 60 percent.
Saturday Oct 7
Day: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 86°F.
Heat index around 97°F. Southeast wind to 13 MPH. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Lows
around 82°F. Heat index around 92°F. East southeast wind to 11 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 40 percent.
Sunday Oct 8
Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around
87°F. Heat index around 96°F. Southeast wind 8 to 14 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around
80°F. Heat index around 89°F. South southeast wind to 12 MPH. Chance of
precipitation 50 percent.
Monday Oct 9
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Highs
around 86°F. Heat index around 93°F. South southeast wind to 9 MPH, gusting to
14 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around
79°F. Southeast wind to 6 MPH, gusting to 17 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Tuesday Oct 10
Day: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around
85°F. Heat index around 92°F. East southeast wind to 7 MPH, gusting to 18 MPH.
Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around
79°F. East wind 7 to 13 MPH, gusting to 18 MPH. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
Wednesday Oct 11
Day: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs
around 85°F. Heat index around 90°F. East northeast wind 10 to 16 MPH. Chance
of precipitation 40
percent.
SOUTH FLORIDA GRADUALLY SEEING IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON
South
Florida is already see a gradual improvement. 248 nautical mile radar
shows less rains to the southeast. Most of the heavier rain bands are
moving over western Broward and along the west coast. Long range global
models suggest another period of no tropical cyclones after Nate moves
out of the area. lets hope it last through the rest of the hurricane
season.
TROPICAL STORM NATE 11AM EDT 10/05/17
000 WTNT31 KNHC 051446 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...CENTER OF NATE NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 83.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located inland over northeastern Nicaragua near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 83.7 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected later today, with that motion continuing through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras today and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today while the center is over land. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly over water to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras and Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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