000 WTNT33 KNHC 291435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 ...PHILIPPE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 77.5W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Cuba. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 77.5 West. Philippe is moving toward the east-northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected to begin later this afternoon and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will continue to move quickly away from the Florida east coast and the northwestern Bahamas and emerge over the open western Atlantic later this afternoon, remaining well away from the United States and Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by tonight, and be absorbed by a large extratropical low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. Recent ship observations continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force winds of 40 to 50 mph (65 to 83 km/h) are occurring across the waters in and near the northwestern Bahamas. In addition, sustained winds of 35 mph (56 km/h) and gusts to 51 mph (81 km/h) have been occurring at Settlement Point on the western end of Grand Bahama Island during the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Philippe is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Cuba. This rainfall could cause flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in the mountainous terrain of Cuba. The heavy rainfall threat for the Bahamas has diminished WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue across portions of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas this morning, but end by early afternoon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Sunday, October 29, 2017
PHILIPPE 11 AM EDT UPDATE OCT 29, 2017
...PHILIPPE RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA DISCONTINUED...
PHILIPPE INTERMIDIATE ADVISORY 0200 AM EDT OCT 29, 2017
...PHILIPPE MOVING ERRATICALLY NEAR KEY WEST...
000 WTNT33 KNHC 290541 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 ...PHILIPPE MOVING ERRATICALLY NEAR KEY WEST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 82.0W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Craig Key to Golden Beach * Central Bahamas For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. Philippe has been moving erratically eastward near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula this morning, and across the northwestern Bahamas later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches are expected through today. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of central Cuba, which may lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in the higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions of the warning area in Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area later this morning across the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the Florida Keys and southeast Florida over the next several hours, and in the central Bahamas later this morning. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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