2. A tropical wave approaching the Brazilian coast near 56-55° West has some thunderstorms associated with it but southwesterly shear ahead of the wave should prevent any further storm development before the wave makes its way onshore. RTW
Thursday, May 31, 2018
AFTERNOON TROPICAL OUTLOOK
2. A tropical wave approaching the Brazilian coast near 56-55° West has some thunderstorms associated with it but southwesterly shear ahead of the wave should prevent any further storm development before the wave makes its way onshore. RTW
FLORIDIANS BUY YOUR HURRICANE SUPPLIES TAX FREE FROM JUNE 1-7
WSVN 7 NewsVerified account @wsvn
56 minutes ago
Floridians will be able to buy hurricane preparation supplies tax-free from Friday through next Thursday
https://wsvn.com/news/local/hurricane-season-floridians-can-buy-supplies-tax-free/ …
COLORADO STATE UNNIVERSITY 2018 SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST MAY 31, 2018
Philip KlotzbachVerified account @philklotzbach
2 hours ago
CSU has updated its seasonal forecast and now calls for a near average season with 14 named storms (including Alberto), six #hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Primary reason for reduction is anomalous cooling in tropical Atlantic. @ColoradoStateU
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/05/2018-06.pdf …
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1023 AM EDT MAY 31 , 2018
2. Tropical wave near 56° West is not showing signs of development. The tropics remain quiet for now. RTW
Wednesday, May 30, 2018
AFTERNOON TROPIC OUTLOOK 0347 PM EDT MAY 30, 2018
1. A new tropical wave near 17° West is in a dry Sahara Dust Environment. Development is not likely at this time.
2 A tropical wave moved back from previous location to near 52° West. There are no signs of development at this time.
Cool SST's
Abnormal cooling of the east Atlantic sea surface temps is being reported. This and Sahara dust is a definite inhibitor for tropical cyclone formation. Will have to monitor these cool SST's throughout the remainder of the season. RTW
Note light tan color off the African coast that is Sahara Dust
Sea Surface Temperature Map
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 0958 AM EDT MAY 30, 2018
THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND AFRICAN COAST SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE UNSEASONABLY COOL. LETS HOPE THAT STAYS THAT WAY THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. RTW
Tuesday, May 29, 2018
AFTERNOON TROPICAL OUTLOOK 0356 PM EDT MAY 29, 2018
FLORIDA IS STUCK IN ANOTHER OF THOSE CARIBBEAN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 1036 AM EDT MAY 29, 2018
Monday, May 28, 2018
ALBERTO DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION 1100 PM EDT MAY 28, 2018
000 WTNT31 KNHC 290235 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 ...ALBERTO WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 86.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WNW OF DOTHAN ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from the Aucilla River to the Okaloosa/Walton County line has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Alberto was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 86.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) A faster northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move over Alabama later tonight and early Tuesday. The system is forecast to move over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast as Alberto moves farther inland, and the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain from Alabama to the western Great Lakes and from northern Florida to the mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday. Isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are possible over the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. These rains may produce flooding and flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
ALBERTO MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LAGUNA BEACH FLORIDA MAY 28, 2018
000 WTNT31 KNHC 282043 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018 ...CENTER OF ALBERTO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR LAGUNA BEACH FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 85.9W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All watches and warnings east of the Aucilla River have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Aucilla River to Mexico Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Aucilla River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 85.9 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move over Alabama later tonight and Tuesday. The system is forecast to move over the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast as Alberto moves inland, and Alberto is expected to become a subtropical depression tonight or early Tuesday, and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The official observing site at Panama City recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h). An automated weather station near St. Andrew Bay measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: The Florida panhandle across eastern and central Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated 5 inches. Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the warning area into this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Acuilla River to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola measured a water level of 2.99 ft above Mean Higher High Water earlier this afternoon. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of Georgia and southeast Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
TRACKING THE TROPICS 0225 PM EDT... MAY 28, 2018
Other than Alberto approaching the Florida Panhandle there is a low latitude tropical wave at 35° West showing no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time. The tropics are quiet for now.
RTW
ALBERTO ADVISORY ISSUED AT 10 AM BY NHC MAY 28 2018
000 WTNT31 KNHC 281443 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018 ...CENTER OF ALBERTO NEARING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...RAIN BANDS AND GUSTY WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 85.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Alabama/Florida border has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch west of Mexico Beach has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Suwannee River to Mexico Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 85.8 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster northward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, the system is forecast to move well inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast later today. Steady weakening is forecast after landfall, and Alberto will likely become a subtropical depression tonight or early Tuesday, and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. An elevated observing station located about 15 miles (25 km) south of Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h). A sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) have been observed at Apalachicola, Florida within the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20 to 25 inches. The Florida panhandle across eastern and central Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and Florida peninsula...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area today and continue into this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Mexico Beach...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern South Carolina, and southeastern Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will continue to affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
12Z GUIDANCE MODEL RUN
LATE 06Z GUIDANCE MODEL RUN
GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL RUN
WIDEVIEW LEVEL 2 RADAR
PRESENT LOCATION ZOOMED WIND FIELD AND NHC FORECAST TRACK
Sunday, May 27, 2018
ALBERTO 11 PM EDT ADVISORY AMY 27, 2018
000 WTNT31 KNHC 280242 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018 ...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 85.8W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Suwannee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 85.8 West. The storm is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north- northwestward to northward motion is expected Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will move over the northern Gulf of Mexico overnight and cross the northern Gulf Coast in the warning area on Monday. Alberto is expected to move inland into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and move into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast. Steady weakening is expected after landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression Monday night or Tuesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm-totals of 20 to 25 inches. The Florida panhandle into much of Alabama and western Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches. The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 10 inches. Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches. Rest of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley into the lower mid Atlantic from Tennessee east through the Carolinas...2 to 6 inches. Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast United States, including Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the warning area overnight and continue through Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to Navarre Florida...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible on Monday across much of Florida into central and southern Georgia, southern South Carolina, and southeastern Alabama. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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