National Hurricane Center
932
AXNT20 KNHC 081159
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 AM EDT Wed Aug 8 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...Sub-tropical Storm Debby is located near 40.8N/48.8W as of
08/0900 UTC. Estimated minimum pressure is 1003 mb moving north
at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
A turn toward the northeast is expected by Wednesday night. See
the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.
...Caribbean Gale Warning...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean from
11N-13N between 70W-76W. The gale is forecast to end on 08/1500
UTC. The gale is forecast to resume on 09/0000 UTC, and then end
again on 09/1500 UTC. Please see the Atlantic High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave axis in the eastern Atlantic extends from 20N28W
to 06N31W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The northern part of the wave is
affected by Saharan dry air intrusion. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-13N between 28W-34W.
A tropical wave axis in the central Atlantic extends from 19N45W
to 07N47W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined
inverted V surface pattern noted on satellite imagery. The wave
also has a large 700 mb trough associated with the wave. The
northern part of the wave is affected by Saharan dry air
intrusion. No significant convection is observed with this wave at
this time.
A low amplitude tropical wave has entered the southeast
Caribbean extending its axis from 12N62W to 04N62W, moving W at
10-15 kt. The wave continues to be affected by intrusion of
Saharan dry air and dust. This wave is forecast to dissipate over
South America today. No significant convection is observed with
this wave at this time.
A tropical wave axis in the W Caribbean extends from 20N83W to
05N83W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment at
the lower levels as indicated by SSMI TPW imagery. It is also
under an upper-level diffluent environment. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 13N-20N between 80W-89W, and in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough mainly south of 10N.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 15N18W and
extends southwestward to 07N36W. The ITCZ begins W of a tropical
wave near 07N36W and continues to 09N44W, then resumes from 08N48W
to 06N57W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, scattered showers are observed within 180 nm S of the
monsoon trough east of 20W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
An area of high pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the
NE Gulf of Mexico waters. A surface trough is over the SE Gulf
from 27N83W to 23N85W with scattered showers within 120 nm of the
trough. Another surface trough is inland over the Yucatan
peninsula. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is
centered over the Straits of Florida near 24N81W. Another upper
level low is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N94W.
A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula from the
early evenings to overnight hours for the next several days. A
surge of fresh to occasionally strong winds will be associated
with this trough. The SE Gulf trough is forecast to move westward
over the tonight and Wed while dissipating. Otherwise, high
pressure ridging will prevail across the area through the week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details. A Gale Warning is also in effect.
Please check the Special Features section above for details.
The monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean supports scattered moderate
convection south of 13N and west of 80W. This pattern will
continue through midweek. The next tropical wave is forecast to
reach the waters E of the Lesser Antilles late Thu, and move
across these islands on Fri.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Sub-tropical storm Debby is over the central Atlantic. Refer to
the section above for details. Two tropical waves are moving
across the basin. See the section above for details. A 1020 mb
high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N68W. A small surface
trough is also located over the W Atlantic from 29N66W to 26N66W.
Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. The E Atlantic
is under the influence of a broad area of high pressure
supporting fair weather. In the upper levels, a large upper level
trough is over the central Atlantic N of 26N between 40W-60W.
For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
$$
Formosa/ERA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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