TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AUG 10, 2018... 1017 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

077 
AXNT20 KNHC 101204
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/28W S of 20N, moving
W 10 to 15 knots. This wave is associated with a 700 mb trough. 
Isolated moderate rainshowers are possible from 04N to 17N 
between 20W and 30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W S of 12N, moving
W 15 knots. This is a low amplitue and low latitude wave. Any
nearby precipitation is probably more related to the monsoon
trough/ITCZ. 

An E Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/61W S of 19N, 
moving W 15 to 20 knots. A well-defined inverted V surface 
pattern is apparent in satellite imagery. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are within 180 nm on either side of the line that runs
from 21N56W 16N59W 10N65W, from the Atlantic Ocean to the coast of
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 17N16W to 10N30W to  
07N42W. The ITCZ is along 06N45W 03N51W. Widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 06N to
10N between 35W and 43W, and from 08N to 11N between 48W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1020 mb high is centered over the E Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W.
10 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the E Gulf. A surface
trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N93W to 17N93W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the trough axis

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N84W, over 
the SE Gulf. Scattered showers remain over S Florida. Another 
upper level cyclonic circulation center is over Mexico near 
20N101W. Upper level diffluence is over the Bay of Campeche
enhancing convection. 

A surface ridge will prevail across the area through early next 
week, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the western and 
central Gulf. A nocturnal trough moving off the Yucatan peninsula 
will induce a surge of fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Bay of
Campeche each night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. Scattered
showers remain over Hispaniola. More scattered showers are over
the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador. 

The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough extends over
Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia along 09N. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-11N between 75W-86W. 

The base of an upper level low is over the NE Caribbean enhancing
showers. A large upper level high is centered over the Gulf of 
Honduras near 17N86W. Anticyclonic upper level winds are W of 75W.

High pressure north of the area will support fresh
to strong winds over the south central Caribbean through early
next week. A tropical wave moving over the Lesser Antilles will 
reach the central Caribbean Sat night, and pass W of the region 
Tue. Another tropical wave will move into the eastern Caribbean 
on Mon. Winds will approach gale force Sun night and Mon morning 
along the coast of Colombia as the pressure gradient tightens. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A small area of scattered moderate convection is over the W
Atlantic from 29N-32N between 72W-75W due to the southern extent
of a surface trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is under high
pressure ridging from a 1030 mb high centered over the E Atlantic
near 38N23W to the W Atlantic near 25N63W. 

An upper level low is centered N of the Leeward Islands near
23N67W. Elsewhere, the base of an upper level low is over the
central Atlantic N of 27N between 45W-60W enhancing showers.

Ridging along 26N will shift southward today ahead 
of a trough moving off the southeast coast of the U.S. through 
Fri. The ridge will then move N to 28N through early next week. 

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ 

---------------------------------------------------------------

NEW STORM INVEST

808 
ABNT20 KNHC 101151
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 10 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather is located about midway between Africa
and the Lesser Antilles.  Environmental conditions are expected to
become conducive for some gradual development while the system moves
slowly west over the next few days.  By the middle of next week,
stronger upper-level winds could limit the chance for further
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

----------------------------------------------------------------

There is a new storm investigation in the Central Atlantic.  Same

strong wave I had circled on the website and mentioned in previous

post on blog.  Models suggest some development, but they are

suggest that it will weaken and dissipate before reaching the 

east Caribbean.  Elsewhere the tropics are quiet...RTW