THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR DAY-1,2 AND 3

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PENINSULA.  HOWEVER, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AT THIS TIME.

RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR FLORIDA

So far it does not look like a significant rainfall event at this time.  Here is Day-1, 2 and 3 rainfall outlook.

MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES PROGESSING WESTWARD

A mid to upper level disturbance continues progressing westward.  Squally conditions are moving over the Bahamas.  The Low center seems to be close to the north coast of Cuba or partially over it according to latest water vapor imagery.  Showers and storms are trying to rap around the broad center of circulation.  You can see showers and storms along the western edge of the circulation.  So far rain is in the forecast for Florida over the weekend as this system approaches the Peninsula.

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net 

 Upper Level Water Vapor

 Middle Level Water Vapor

 Lower Level Water Vapor

RALPH'S TROPICAL WEATHER SITE IS UP MONITORING DISTURBANCE

I HAVE ACTIVATED SITE EARLY UNTIL THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER BEING MONITORED.  I WAS ORIGINALLY GOING TO ACTIVATE SITE IN MAY 15, 2018 FOR WAVE TRACKING BUT THIS SYSTEM POPPED IN EARLY.  LINK IS BELOW...RTW

http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net

LATEST SATELLITE ANIMATION FROM COD.EDU

NHC SPECIAL TROPICAL OUTLOOK

NHC Atlantic Ops‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic 2m2 minutes ago

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook has been issued on the system near the Bahamas. While development is not expected, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over southern Florida and the Bahamas through this weekend. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 …

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING WEST FOR THE WEEKEND

An upper level disturbance tracking west toward Florida could enhance showers and storms over the weekend.  Period of brief heavy rains with gusty winds and possible lightning during the next few days and increasing as the low moves toward the southern half of Florida.  Dry air ahead of this system due to high pressure will prevent development from occurring.  This is a gale center at most which could kick up winds over the Bahamas and Southeast Florida Atlantic waters.