Monday, May 21, 2018

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 21, 2018...0909 PM EDT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low pressure area has formed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize.
This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread
cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean
Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula.  While environmental
conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during
the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical
development is possible later this week while the system moves
slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
across western Cuba and much of Florida during the next several
days.  For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 AM
EDT on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

MEMORIAL WEEKEND FORECAST IS QUESTIONABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP

I continue to monitor the Northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone formation by this weekend.  Most of the models suggest some development but so far none are suggesting anything strong.  Interest from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this weather system...RTW




 

TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 21, 2018...1107 AM EDT

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough.  While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days.  For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Blake
 

RTW WEBSITE UPDATED MAY 21, 2018 1119 AM EDT 
 http://ralphstropicalweather.myfreesites.net
 

 
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