Ralph's Tropical Weather-RTW: 05/24/18

STORM INVEST 90L MAY 24, 2018...1103 PM EDT

FORECAST MODELS SUGGESTING A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EARLIER THE EURO MODEL WAS SUGGESTING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. REGARDLESS OF THE STRENGTH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ralphstropicalweather.com

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TROPICAL ATLANTIC WAVE WATCH MAY 24, 2018...0404 PM EDT

Other than one wave near 50° West the tropics remain quiet with below normal Atlantic sea surface temps at this time. We still have June, July, Aug and Sept for ocean temps to warm. If that don't occur, then this could hinder tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic. Only time will tell, so be hurricane ready.

I continued to monitor INVEST 90L which should become a tropical cyclone at any time...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

STORM INVEST 90L MAY 24, 2018...0254 PM EDT

STORM INVEST 90L

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
130 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad surface low drifting slowly northward over the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula continues to become better defined. Although
showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, remain
primarily over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean
Sea, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive
for development through early next week, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Friday
afternoon, if necessary. Locally heavy rainfall is forecast across
western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast
into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip currents will
steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to
Louisiana over the Memorial Day weekend. For more information on
these threats, please see products issued by your local weather
office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system
will be issued by 800 PM EDT this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

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CARIBBEAN CLOUD TOP SATELLITE

NOAA CALL FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 2018 HURRICANE SEASON

Well it is looking like a Poker Game with this Season. So far as I mentioned to some of you that ask me earlier this month. This will be a Neutral Season meaning we are between a weak El Nino and a weak La Nina. What does this mean is anything can happen. We are either suppressed from hurricanes or we are going to be busy. Near or Above normal hurricane season means be prepared. Regardless of above or below all it takes is just one storm and we always have to be prepared every hurricane season...RTW

‏Verified account @philklotzbach

Seasonal Atlantic #hurricane outlook from NOAA calls for highest likelihood of a near-normal season: 10-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 1-4 major (Cat. 3+) hurricanes. CSU will release its updated outlook on May 31. @iiiorg

STORM INVEST 90L AND TRACKING THE TROPICS MAY 24, 2018...1001 AM EDT

STORM INVEST 90L

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
740 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad, stationary surface low pressure system centered over the
southeastern Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds,
are confined primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, gradual development of this system is expected during
the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan
Peninsula.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of
Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. In
addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along
the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day
weekend. For more information on these threats, please see products
issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 200 PM EDT this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

ralphstropicalweather.com

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STORM INVEST 90L AND TROPICAL UPDATE MAY 23, 2018 1155 PM EDT

STORM INVEST 90L

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232308
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
710 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad surface low centered over the southeastern Yucatan
Peninsula has become better defined since yesterday, and it
continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and showers
extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba into the
Florida Straits.  Continued slow development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near
the Yucatan Peninsula.  Thereafter, environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development, and a subtropical
or tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the
eastern or central Gulf of Mexico.  Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and the
Cayman Islands during the next few days, and over much of Florida
and the northern Gulf Coast during the weekend. For more information
on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

http://ralphstropicalweather.com/

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Thursday, May 24, 2018