000 WTNT31 KNHC 270256 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Alberto Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 ...CENTER OF ALBERTO REFORMS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 84.6W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Pinar del Rio. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Bonita Beach to Anclote River * Aucilla River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the United States portion of that watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 84.6 West. The storm is moving generally toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later tonight, and a motion toward the north-northwest is expected Sunday through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then move near or over the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico in the warning area late Monday afternoon or Monday night. Heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the arrival of the center of Alberto. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast until the system reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) mainly to the east of the center. The NOAA automated station at Pulaski Shoals, Florida recently reported sustained winds of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Alberto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated totals of 25 inches across western Cuba. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 7 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern Florida. Heavy rains will begin to affect the eastern Gulf Coast region into the southeastern United States on Sunday and continue into the middle of next week as Alberto moves northward after landfall. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible along the track of Alberto from much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into western Tennessee. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are possible across eastern Mississippi and from the southern Appalachians into the coastal southeast United States. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas and in the warning area along the west coast of Florida beginning later tonight and Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by Sunday night. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the northern Gulf Coast by Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Crystal River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge- related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight across the Keys and south Florida tonight, and across all of the state on Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Alberto are expected to spread northward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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