TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK EVENING EDITION JUNE 10, 2018 0927 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W from 11N
southward. The Hovmoller Diagram clearly indicates the westward 
propagation of the wave, and model diagnostics guidance also 
suggests the presence of this system. This wave shows up well
as a low amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered convective debris
clouds, from earlier and already-dissipated precipitation, cover
the area from 03N to 10N between 16W and 26W. it is possible that 
isolated moderate rainshowers may remain in the area of
cloudiness.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W from 12N southward 
moving westward 15 to 20 knots. This wave shows up well as a low 
amplitude moisture surge on the TPW product. Precipitation: 
isolated moderate rainshowers are in the ITCZ from 04N to 08N 
between 29W and 36W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W based on the TPW
animation. The wave coincides with a good surge of moistened air.
Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 10N
between 37W and 47W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, starting to move 
across Hispaniola, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate rainshowers are from 16N to 22N between 63W and
71W. 

A tropical wave is along 88W/89W, moving across the Yucatan 
Peninsula and northern Central America. The wave is interacting 
with an upper level trough, with continued development of
rainshowers in parts of the western Caribbean Sea, northern 
Central America, and the Yucatan Peninsula. 

---------------------------------------------------------------

I continue monitoring the Northwest Caribbean for tropical cyclone 

formation during the this week as the GFS continues suggesting low 

pressure could possibly develop, and eventually move into the Gulf of 

Mexico.  

An upper level trough has dropped into the northwest Caribbean adding 
some instability for the formation of showers and storms over the southern 
Caribbean and a portion of the northwest Caribbean as it interacts with a 
tropical wave near the Yucatan.  This instability if it persist could be the 
start of an area of disturbed weather and low pressure that the GFS has 
been forecasting for 2 weeks now.  I will continue to monitor this area for
development during the coming week...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com

EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY JUN 10, 2018

National Hurricane Center

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 102339
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Bud Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

...BUD CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 104.7W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bud was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 104.7 West. Bud is moving toward
the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a
gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the core of Bud and its stronger winds
are expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of
mainland Mexico during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Bud is forecast to strengthen rapidly during the
next 24 hours or so, but weakening is expected to begin by late
Tuesday or early Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 145
miles (230 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Bud is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of
3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches through
Tuesday afternoon over portions of southwestern Mexico. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of
high terrain.

SURF:  Swells generated by Bud will continue to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning Monday afternoon.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi 

 STORM WIND FIELD RADIUS AND NHC FORECAST TRACK BY RTW

 CURRENT GUIDANCE MODEL RUN

 CMC COMBO MODEL RUN

 H-MODEL COMBO RUN

 UKMET COMBO MODEL RUN

 ADDITIONAL GRAPHICS CURRENT MODEL RUN

 LATE MODEL RUN

 GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL RUN

ATLANTIC TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 10, 2018...1024 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Currently, two tropical waves are observed between the coast of 
Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Two tropical waves are moving 
across the Caribbean Sea. 

A tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 4N-14N moving westward 15 
to 20 kt. This wave shows up well as a low amplitude moisture 
surge on the TPW product. Currently, scattered showers are near
the southern end of the wave's axis. African dust surrounds the 
wave.

A second tropical wave extends its axis along 40W south of 15N, 
moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate 
convection is seen where the waves axis meets the ITCZ. Saharan 
dust also surrounds the wave.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis 
is along 65W/66W south of 18N, moving westward 15 to 20 kt. A 
patch of low level moisture with embedded showers is associated 
with the wave, affecting Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The 
wave will reach Hispaniola late today. 

A tropical wave is along 88W moving west at 10 kt. The wave is
interacting with an upper-level trough resulting in continued 
thunderstorm development across parts of the western Caribbean and
northern Central America. Scattered showers and tstms are now
observed near the northern end of the wave's axis. affecting the
east part of the Yucatan Peninsula.

----------------------------------------------------------------

There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com