AFTERNOON TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 13, 2018... 0302 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a surface trough.  This area of
disturbed weather, accompanied by strong gusty winds, is forecast
to move west-northwestward over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula
later tonight, and move into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by
Thursday afternoon.  No development is expected for the next day or
so due to land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula and strong
upper-level winds.  However, environmental conditions could become
slightly more conducive for some development of this disturbance
while it moves across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and
Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

ralphstropicalweather.com

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 13, 2018... 1030 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jun 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Bud, located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure centered several hundred miles south-
southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined
since yesterday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive, and slow development could occur during the
next couple of days as the system drifts north-northwestward.  By
the weekend, interaction with land is expected to limit further
organization.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rain
causing flash floods and mudslides is possible over the southern
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca beginning in
a day or so and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Blake

ralphstropicalweather.com 

Upper level outflow from East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Bud is streaming over the Northwest

Caribbean and suppressing any development from Invest 91L north of Honduras... RTW

TROPICAL UPDATE JUNE 12, 2018... 1155 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western
Caribbean Sea are associated with a surface trough.  This activity
is forecast to move westward to northwestward over Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days, with no
development expected. Environmental conditions could become
slightly more conducive for some development if the system moves
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

ralphstropicalweather.com