TROPICALWEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 3, 2018... 0405 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 knots. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 30W and
40W. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 19N
southward, moving W 10 knots. The low level cloud field 
associated with this wave exhibits an inverted-V signature.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 08N to
15N between 50W and 60W, and from 08N to 13N between 60W and 64W
in parts of the SE Caribbean Sea and Venezuela and Trinidad and
Tobago. The moisture that is associated with this wave will a 
modest increase in the chances for rainshowers for the eastern
Caribbean Sea islands during the next day or so.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W from 22N in Cuba
southward, across Jamaica. The wave is moving westward 20 knots.
Broad cyclonic wind flow exists at 500 mb and 700 mb, from 20N
southward between 80W and Central America. Scattered to numerous
strong rainshowers cover the area from 11N to 14N between 80W and
85W, in the Caribbean Sea and in Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to
locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea
from 18N southward between 74W and 84W. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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National Hurricane Center 

CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCE

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031731
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of disturbed weather has formed a few hundred miles
southeast of Bermuda.  Upper-level winds could become somewhat
conducive for development by late this week when the disturbance is
forecast to be southwest of Bermuda.  The system is forecast to move
generally northward over the weekened and begin interacting with a
frontal system on Sunday, which would limit any additional
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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1. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ORLEANS THAT 

CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND STORMS AS IT TRACKS 

SLOWLY WESTWARD.

2. A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE GRAND 

BAHAMAS IS ALSO PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE 

FLORIDA PENINSULA AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS 

SYSTEM COULD ENHANCE THE RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW JULY 4TH.

ralphstropicalweather.com 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 3, 2018... 1104 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has an axis extending from 16N33W to 04N34W and 
is moving W around 10 kt. The wave coincides with a surge of 
moisture as noted in the TPW product, but African dust surrounds 
the northern side of the wave and is inhibiting convection there. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen within the moister southern 
portion of the wave from 01N to 08N between 30W and 36W.

A tropical wave extends from 19N52W to 05N53W. This feature is 
moving W around 10 kt. The low level cloud field associated with 
this wave exhibits an inverted-V signature. This wave shows up 
well in the TPW animation where a pronounced bulge of moisture is 
observed. This wave remains surrounded by Saharan dust which is 
limiting convection in the vicinity of this wave. Only a small 
cluster of moderate convection is noted E of the wave axis from 
09N to 11N between 49W and 51W. Moisture associated with this wave
will begin reaching the Windward Islands early this afternoon and
bring a modest increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms 
for this area during the next day or so.

A tropical wave has an axis extending from the eastern Cuba near 
21N76W to the coast of Colombia 08N77W, moving westward at around 
20 knots. The wave is well depicted in the moisture product. The 
monsoon trough extends E over the SW Caribbean from Costa Rica to 
northern Colombia near 10N74W. The tropical wave is interacting 
with the trough to generate numerous moderate and isolated strong 
convection from 11N to 13N between 81W and 84W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 120 nm 
of a line from 08N75W to 14N83W. Model guidance indicates that the
abundant moisture associated with this wave will spread W from 
the SW Caribbean over Nicaragua and Honduras this afternoon and 
tonight.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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A mid to upper level low north of the Bahamas continues tracking

west and could begin to affect the Florida Peninsula this evening

and on the 4th of July enhancing the rain and storm chance tomorrow.

A low south of Mississippi is also tracking slowly westward.  This

low is producing heavy rains and storms over the lower half of

Louisiana. There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation...RTW

ralphstropicalweather.com