National Hurricane Center
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 15N
southward. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the wave near
10N. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area that extends from 12N southward between
28W and 40W. This wave was formed by energy that was left over
after the current 40W tropical wave continued its westward
movement.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 15N southward.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in
satellite imagery.
An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 19N
southward, cutting across Puerto Rico. Precipitation: broken
multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong
rainshowers, are from Hispaniola southward to South America
between 63W and 74W.
A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W from 23N
in Cuba southward. Broad cyclonic wind flow exists at 500 mb and
700 mb, from 20N southward between 80W and Central America.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers cover the area that extends from 10N northward
between 77W and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea and the
Yucatan Peninsula. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041728
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a few hundred
miles to the south of Bermuda are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
before the end of the week while the system moves west-northwestward
and then northward between Bermuda and the east coast of the United
States. The system is then forecast to interact with a frontal
system on Sunday, which would limit any additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Shower activity has changed little in organization near a small
area of low pressure and tropical wave located several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. In addition, recent
satellite-derived wind data and visible satellite images suggest
that the system may not have a closed surface wind circulation.
Some development of this system is possible during the next day or
two while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical
Atlantic Ocean. Upper-level winds are expected to become less
conducive for development by this weekend when the system approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Berg
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ralphstropicalweather.com
The Central Atlantic system has a Low chance for
development at this time. Environment ahead of
this wave is not favorable for tropcial cyclone
formation...RTW
18Z GUIDANCE MODEL RUN
18Z H-MODEL RUN
18Z CMC MODEL RUN
18Z UKMET MODEL RUN
Atlantic Color and Visible Satellite
