Thursday, July 26, 2018

TROPIC OUTLOOK JULY 26. 2018... 0300 PM EDT

National Hurricane Center
107 
AXNT20 KNHC 261717
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
117 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands with an axis
extending from 18N22W to 05N23W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
This wave is well defined with a notable 700 mb trough in model
guidance. Deep moisture interacting with the wave S of 10N
is supporting scattered moderate convection from 07N to 10N 
between 21W and 26W. The remainder of the wave environment lacks 
convection due in part to the presence of Saharan dry air and 
dust.

A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with an axis extending
from 20N37W to 05N38W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This wave
is associated with a well defined trough at 700 mb. A large area 
of Saharan dry air and dust continue to hinder convection from 
developing around this wave.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis
extending from 11N52W to 06N52W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered thunderstorms are S of 13N within 90 nm of the wave
axis. Strong deep layer wind shear and Saharan dry air and dust 
are hindering deep convection across the northern portion of the 
wave.

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean has been re-analyzed as
of 1500 UTC along 71W based off both long term satellite imagery
and 700 mb model field data. Precipitable water satellite imagery
shows a very dry environment across the central Caribbean, which 
along with strong deep layer wind shear are hindering convection S
of Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
12N16W to 07N33W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W to 09N51W...then 
resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N54W and continues to 10N60W.
Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, 
scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N E of 20W, and 
within 180 nm N of the ITCZ axis between 54W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough prevails across the E Gulf with its base 
extending SW from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. This 
trough supports a weakening stationary front that extends across 
the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana. It also supports a surface
trough that extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to 26N89W. 
Numerous showers and tstms are within 120 nm SE of this trough. 
The front is transitioning to a surface trough. Both troughs are
expected to lift north through tonight. Otherwise, the Atlantic 
subtropical ridge covers the remainder of the SE Gulf and will 
continue to build northwestward across the remainder of the basin
through the weekend. Light to gentle variable flow will dominate 
the basin during this time period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak upper level low centered near Jamaica along with shallow 
moisture in the NW Caribbean support scattered showers and tstms N
of 17N between 75W and 83W. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough 
supports numerous showers and tstms S of 11N. A tropical wave is 
crossing the central Caribbean waters. Please refer to the 
tropical waves section above for further details. GOES-16 water 
vapor imagery continues to indicate very dry conditions across the
remainder of the basin while enhanced RGB satellite imagery 
indicates a thin layer of Saharan Air Dust moving across the area.
Strong deep layer wind shear is also noted in the E Caribbean. 
These hostile factors are suppressing convection across the 
remainder of the Caribbean basin. A new tropical wave is forecast 
to move across the Lesser Antilles Friday night, with showers and 
thunderstorms beginning to spread across the southern Leeward 
islands starting this evening in advance of the wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the tropical waves section above for more details. Scattered 
showers and tstms N of 23N W of 75W are being supported by an 
upper trough along the eastern United States that extends across 
the Florida peninsula. This upper trough will prevail through
Friday, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over this 
area. Farther east, an upper level low supports a surface trough 
that extends from 31N63W to 28N66W. These features support a broad
area of cloudiness with scattered showers and isolated tstms from
20N to 31N between 62W and 70W. The Atlantic subtropical ridge 
dominates the remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1030 mb 
high centered near 37N54W. Surface ridging will dominate the 
central and eastern Atlantic through the end of the week providing
stable and dry conditions. 

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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Sahara dust continues to suppress tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic...RTW

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK JULY 26, 2018...0955 AM EDT

National Hurricane Center
256 
AXNT20 KNHC 261203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands with an axis
extending from 10N21W to 07N21W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt.
This wave is well defined with a notable 700 mb trough in model
guidance. Deep moisture interacting with the wave S of 12N
is generating scattered moderate convection from 07N to 12N 
between 18W and 24W. The remainder wave environment lacks 
convection due in part to the presence of Saharan dry air and 
dust.

A tropical wave is over central Atlantic with an axis extending
from 20N35W to 07N36W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A large 
area of Saharan dry air and dust continue to hinder convection 
from developing around this wave.

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with an axis
extending from 18N49W to 05N50W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Strong deep layer wind shear and Saharan dry air and dust are
hindering deep convection at this time.

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis 
extending from 21N71W to 11N73W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. 
Precipitable water satellite imagery shows a very dry environment 
across the central Caribbean, which along with strong deep layer 
wind shear are hindering convection S of Hispaniola. Only shallow
moisture and middle level diffluence support scattered showers 
and tstms ahead of the wave in the Windward Passage...off SW 
Haiti.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
12N16W to 09N32W. The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 08N48W...then 
resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N52W and continues to the 
coast of South America near 09N61W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection
is from 06N to 11N E of 18W, and within 150 nm N of the ITCZ axis
between 52W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough prevails across the E Gulf with base
extending SW from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche. This
trough supports a weak stationary front that extends across the 
Florida Panhandle to SW Louisiana. It also supports a surface 
trough that extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to 24N89W. 
Isolated showers and tstms are within 75 nm SE of this trough. 
The trough is forecast to dissipate today while the front lifts 
NE of the area. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge covers 
the remainder SE Gulf and will continue to build northwestward 
across the remainder basin through the weekend. Light to gentle 
variable flow will dominate the basin during this time period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low centered near Jamaica along with shallow 
moisture in the NW Caribbean support scattered showers and tstms N
of 17N between 72W and 82W. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough 
supports scattered showers and tstms S of 11N. A tropical wave is
crossing the central Caribbean waters. See the tropical waves 
section above for further details. GOES-16 water vapor imagery 
indicates very dry conditions across the remainder of the basin 
while enhanced RGB satellite imagery indicates a thin layer of 
Saharan Air Dust moving across the area. Strong deep layer wind 
shear is also noted in the E Caribbean. These hostile factors are 
suppressing convection across the remainder of the Caribbean 
basin. A new tropical wave is forecast to move across the Lesser 
Antilles Friday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the tropical waves section above for more details. Scattered 
showers and tstms are N of the Bahamas W of 76W being supported by
an upper trough along the eastern United States that extends to 
the W Atlc waters. Farther east, an upper level low supports a 
surface trough that extends from 27N62W to 23N67W which is
supporting isolated showers and tstms N of 25N between 61W and 
68W. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the 
remainder of the basin being anchored by a 1031 mb high centered 
near 36N56W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern
Atlantic through the end of the week providing stable and dry 
conditions. 

For additional information 
please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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There are no signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time... RTW