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National Hurricane center
360 AXNT20 KNHC 301727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Mon Jul 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends over the Cabo Verde Islands near 26W from 08N-24N, moving westward around 10 kt. A pronounced 700 mb trough in the GFS analysis is noted with this wave, along with a surface trough as see from the 1142 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass. The total precipitable water imagery also shows a maximum east of the trough axis. No significant deep convection is present with this wave at present. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days. A tropical wave is over the east Atlantic with axis extending from 02N-20N along 41W, moving westward around 15 kt. This was only weakly is depicted in the 700 mb tropical trough diagnostic and has negligible surface circulation. North of 13N, the wave is embedded with a large Saharan Air Layer. No significant deep convection is present with this wave at present. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis extending from 01N-22N near 64W, moving westward about 20 kt. The wave is well- defined as seen in 700 mb turning of the winds at the San Juan and Guadeloupe rawindsondes from 12Z this morning. There is also some slight wind shifts seen in surface observations at the 1326 UTC ASCAT scatterometer. Scattered moderate convection is inland over Venezuela from 07N-10N between 60W-64W. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development during the next five days. A tropical wave is over Central America extending from 00N-20N near 88W, moving westward around 15 kt. This wave was repositioned farther west, based upon the Cancun and Merida rawindsondes winds at 700 mb, as well as the tropical trough diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection exists from 19N-23N between 84W-90W. This wave does not pose a threat of tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic basin during the next five days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 09N21W where it breaks east of a tropical wave. The ITCZ extends from 10N27W to 08N40W. W of a tropical wave, the ITCZ resumes near 08N43W and continues to the coast of South America near 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection exists north of 05N east of 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge into the eastern Gulf from the western Atlantic. With a very flat pressure gradient, winds are only 5- 10 kt across the entire Gulf. An upper level low is centered near 27N88W, which is helping to promote isolated moderate convection in the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds will remain light during the next couple of days. Substantial moisture and upper-level trough forcing should contribute toward scattered moderate to strong deep convection over the Gulf during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Bermuda high northeast of the Caribbean in combination with low pressure over Panama/Costa Rica association with the NE Pacific monsoon trough are contribution toward a moderate pressure gradient over the Caribbean. This results in easterly tradewinds for 10-20 kt with a local peak of 25 kt just northwest of Colombia as seen in a 1428 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass. Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean; please refer to the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection exists from 19N-23N between 84W-90W. In the southwest Caribbean, the NE Pacific's monsoon trough supports numerous moderate and scattered deep convection from 07N-12N between 77W-85W over the SW Caribbean, Panama, and Costa Rica. Little change is expected during the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin; please refer to the section above for details. A 1028 mb Bermuda-Azores high dominates the remainder of the basin, centered near 35N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed over the W Atlantic N of 24N W of 77W. Surface ridging will dominate the central and eastern Atlantic through the next couple of days providing stable and dry conditions, except for scattered moderate convection associated with the wave currently near 26W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea
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Ralph's Tropical Weather
So far there are no changes in the tropics there are four waves across
the Atlantic. So far the first two are being affected by Sahara dust
and dry air and the other two are not showing signs of tropical cyclone
formation at this time. There is a lot of tropical moisture flowing over
Florida as the Peninsula is sandwiched in between two upper level
lows one in the Gulf and the other near Eastern Cuba. There are no
signs of tropical cyclone formation at this time... RTW
